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▐ Futures Thinking
▐ Horizon Scanning
▐ Causal Layered Analysis
Unlike forecasting, with scenario planning we analyse and capture a whole range of critical uncertainties which could change how the future may look. This allows you to build robust plans which can cope with each scenario.
Typically we – and you - begin by identifying the key drivers of change. We have a wide selection of generic drivers which we use to stimulate your thinking. What do the underlying dynamics of demographic change, or the changing relationships between East and West mean for your business? Will climate change (and other environmental changes), and the many technological innovations that swirl around us totally disrupt your industry?
From there we explore the range of uncertainty by creating a number of fundamentally distinct scenarios. One way to do this is to choose two main dimensions to build a 2x 2 scenario cross, but one could select any number.
We then delve into each of these scenarios more deeply, creating rich visions of possible future. We imagine a “day in the life” of a character in each one, encouraging you to really feel how the scenarios may be different. In particular we look for a title for each scenario which captures its essence, usually as a metaphor like “perpetual motion”. What would be a news headline 20 years hence in this scenario?
Then you can start to examine potential strategies against each scenario. Do you have to make all or nothing bets, or can you chart an evolutionary path responding to events as they occur? Would you do better by focussing on improving your speed of response to reduce your risk? What trigger points, indicating one future rather than another, do you need to identify?
We can help you work through all of these issues until you are confident of your ROBUST DECISIONS IN UNCERTAIN TIMES.
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