Using scenarios to surface assumptions at D2D

Background

D2D was ICL's manufacturing Division. The management team of D2D had produced a five year strategic plan, and HQ reviewed it with them as a basis for a prospectus for spinning D2D out as an independent or as part of a contract manufacturing company.

Wind-tunneling the strategic plan

ICL had developed two scenarios for the future of the information industries, using a small team at Group. Coral Reef was a colorful IT world, with many small companies, hectic pace of development, and consumer and business customer interested in the latest products. Deep Sea was world in which a few large suppliers dominated their own territory for both consumer electronics and business computing, and customers preferred dealing with these established suppliers because they were big enough to sue.

When the Management Team was introduced to the scenarios, they recognized that their strategic plan had assumed that the world was a Coral Reef world, but that their competitive advantages - for instance European quality awards and staff policies - were aligned to the Deep Sea scenario. This meant that the part of their assumed future growth relating to consumer electronics was too optimistic. The Team rethought their strategy and plan, focusing on their competitive strengths.

Outcome

The business was successfully sold to Celestica, to provide the European contract manufacturing facility to add to those in China and Canada.