"Futurecast 2020"

by Robert Shapiro (Profile Books 2008)

This book is awesome in scope and profoundly disturbing in its inexorable analysis. Robert Shapiro is a former US Under Secretary of Commerce for Economic Affairs and has used a worldwide network of political thinkers to enrich and validate his analysis of the political and economic forces shaping the world. The sub-title of the book is “A Global Vision of Tomorrow” but much of the vision has nightmarish implications for nation states other than the USA (and perhaps China). Shapiro sees the USA as a sole hegemon with no peers and no current rivals. He dismisses Europe and Japan as major players, Europe because it has retreated into an unsustainable autarchy, Japan because it has no will to reform itself. Shapiro is sceptical that India can find the will to succeed in globalisation; only China has the ruthlessness to exploit globalisation and rebuild its old Asian powerbase. If it does not do so, or fails in the attempt, the Communist Party will lose control.

The book focuses on three great global forces which are shaping the “global blueprint”. These are “an extraordinary global demographic shift”, driven by greater longevity, improving health in most countries and the demand of “baby boomers” worldwide to continue to enjoy wealth in retirement. The second global force is globalisation, driven by freer movement of people, wealth and ideas across the world, supported by information technology and innovation. Shapiro’s third great global force is the collapse of the Soviet Union and the fragmentation of its empire. This has made capitalism the only system which can enable countries to develop successfully and meet the demands of their inhabitants. China and Russia are now capitalist countries which continue to be run by established oligarchies. The growth of the WTO is evidence of the desire of all players to be admitted to the game.

Shapiro sees US hegemony continuing for the next 10/15 years at least, driven by innovation and competition. The US will continue to be world sheriff and provide protection to world sealanes and intellectual property. The national interests of the USA are to protect its home territory and that of Israel. Relationships with other parties are temporary and contingent on national interests; the USA has no “special relationship” with the UK but may use the UK to provide cover eg with the UN in the case of Iraq.

The analysis in the book is both thorough and ruthless. No other nation is spared and the prognosis for Europe is progressive decline. The prognosis for Russia is especially harsh, with its GDP barely 7.5% of that of the USA and its energy resources peaking and difficult to sustain. Life expectancy of Russian men is under 60 years and health care has been abandoned.

Shapiro sees some hope for the UK as it has deregulated and has encouraged innovation. The welfare state has distorted the expectations of British people but he expects it to wither progressively. He sees little hope for “old Europe” as people cling to privileges they can no longer afford. This contrasts with China which has dismantled its welfare system and forced citizens to fend for themselves.

Shapiro recognises some limits to US power, not least volatile public opinion after the disaster of Iraq. Al Quaeda continues to taunt US power through its Scarlet Pimpernel amorphousness and championship of Palestinian rights. Global warming and climate change are likely to increase natural hazards, spurred by “catch up” development in the Third World. Shapiro does not see any alternative to globalisation; autarchy failed in India and South America and burdens much of Africa. Globalisation is the sole process for maximising economic development and for creating the wealth to deal with the poverty which burdens one third of mankind and to sponsor the technological break-throughs which enable progress to continue. Little is said about the impact of that progress on the environment. Shapiro offers us a “brave new world” which has little space for culture or human interaction, since we shall all be busy innovating, consuming and competing.

Adrian Davies

20th April 2008