Building resilience into corporate planning processes: The role of scenarios.

A two day course by SAMI Fellow, Oliver Sparrow

DAY 1:
Introduction, an overview of the time table and aims of the course.

Module 1
Corporate governance is best seen as a three level activity:

• Operations, results: seeks optimisation.

• Portfolio management: seeks asset (re-)allocation.

• Adaptability and insight: seeks renewal, flexibility.

New economy demands that more attention is given to the last of these.
What is entailed in developing the 'third level' of governance?

• Better insight, gained through tools, resources, education.

• Appropriate processes and architecture.

• Granting legitimacy and usefulness.

• Clear deliverables with equally clear quality parameters.

Designing an architecture for the third level of governance.

• From deliverables to activities: from Why? To How?

• Costs and budgets; financial justification.

• Building in motivation.

• Getting started.

Discussion period.

Module 2
Analytical process that delivers third level governance.

• Identifying legitimate and important areas of enquiry.

• Understanding the flow from analysis to action.

• Understanding, coping with different values.

• Understanding narrative and the mental model.

• Avoiding the dangers inherent in abstract analysis.

• Scenarios as a mechanism and vehicle.

• Other tools: from sensitivities to principle components.

Discussion, exploration of 'other tools'.
(Lunch)

Module 3:
Understanding scenario planning.

• Understanding the useful deliverable.

  • Differing needs that scenarios may fulfil.

  • Levels of sophistication, time frames, costs.

• Gathering the threads, making a team.

  • Human qualities that are required; human obstacles.

  • The network approach, including the use of outsiders.

  • Team management, getting a program agreed.

• Three-phase process: analysis, dimensionality, engagement.

  • Analysis: tools and techniques

  • Key dimensionality: the emergent scenarios

• Roll-out procedures: from workshops to hurdle rates.

Discussion period
Explaining the case study.

DAY 2:
Reprise, Q&A; task for the day.

Module 4
The case study: A&B Global in Strikeland. Working in teams.
Feedback by teams.
Reprise; learning points.
A short case study from a real Strikeland.
(Lunch)

Module 5
Global scenarios: where may the world be in 2035?
Discussion, close.

Oliver Sparrow, SAMI Fellow
January 2007