IT in 2057 – Light or Dark?

As part of the British Computer Society’s 50th Anniversary, celebrations, they took a look forward 50 years to 2057. The format chosen was a kaleidoscope of films reflecting aspects of IT in 2057 – health, transport, etc – based on interviews with futurists, science fiction writers and IT professionals.

One striking aspect of the interviews was the polarisation of views between IT professionals and out and out futurists. The IT professionals presented a forecast of the future which talked in terms of efficiencies that might be gained by integrating increasingly powerful and interactive IT with on-going business challenges such as hospital administration and transport integration. The futurists speculated on the unknown, thinking for instance of applying digital technology to human existence, extending life expectancy on the one hand, and “enhancing” human intelligence on the other.

It is the latter view which jars. Apart from presenting a vision of the future which might be described as Robocop and The Terminator rolled into one, the futurist view of the world seems to have little real basis in either human ethics or medical science. The ethical problems associated with meddling with the human condition are best discussed elsewhere. The medical dimension, however, needs to be tackled head on. To my mind, there are two major problems. The first is simply that medical understanding of the brain and nervous functions is nowhere near perfect. There is only limited knowledge of the chemistry of afflictions such as depression or multiple sclerosis as yet. It is difficult to see how IT can enhance brain functions until there is a road map of how it actually works. The second is an extension of the first – without complete medical knowledge, who on earth is going to sanction digital interference? Who will sign up to treatment for themselves or their family?

Three other dimensions of the digital future are worthy of more exploration:

• Cyber crime and prevention: the notorious break into the databank of the Nationwide Building Society is only indicator of the potential for digital crime and the difficulties of digital crime prevention. The problem is only likely to become more acute in the future – what directions will the fight take in the future?

• Future war: there have already been experimental state-sponsored cyber attacks – what is the potential for serious disruption if the gloves are taken off? The current war against terrorism is very much digitally enhanced – how much further can military technology be pushed?

• Social impact: anybody with teenage children hunched over their PCs surfing the distorted waves of the worldwide web or committing digital slaughter in a computer game must worry that human intellectual development is being held back – rather than IT-enhanced thought, might we not headed in the direction of IT-induced catatonia?

Malcolm Cooper
September 2007