October 2008

The mood continues to be sombre, as it was September. The competition for a NASTY acronym (to replace the Non-Inflationary Continuous Expansion decade) has been won by Lynda McGill for New Actions Simply Take Years and she has been awarded the SAMI coffee mug.

We have used the Global Forces for Change DVD this month to help think about the future of cities, of Universities, and of Business Schools, and Oliver Sparrow has been asked to develop a two day course on “preparedness for change as focused on the current financial crisis” for a client in Singapore – this could be useful as an in-house event – please email us at financialcrisis@samiconsulting.co.uk for more details.

Beyond the current turbulence, in researching 2050 for a project, I have come across “The Next Fifty Years”, published in 2001 (edited by John Brockman, published by Weidenfeld & Nicholson). It contains many fascinating articles. One article, by Rodney Brooks of MIT, suggests “over the next fifty years, ---- we are breaking out of our roles as observers of the order of things to become manipulators of life and the order of things. We will no longer find ourselves confined by Darwinian evolution. ---- Our adventures in nuclear fission will seem like child’s play in comparison”. This is just one of the articles that explores the role of harnessing biological systems either through sequencing the human genome by 2050 (Richard Dawkins), or in the replacement of much manufacturing by growing (Rodney Brooks), or the potential for flexible (air/sea/land) transport using GPS and compact energy sources (John H Holland). The articles together suggest that many of the “givens” of the 20th century may be “gones” in the 21st, if we are able to manage the transitions.

The future organisation and financing of healthcare continues to be in the forefront of public policy. In the UK, the recent negative assessments made by the National Institute of Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) in the UK to recommend against NHS reimbursement for several therapies, on the basis of cost effectiveness, causes resentment by physicians and patients. An associated debate has surrounded the private funding of non-reimbursed medicines for patients undergoing NHS treatment. While the media debate has focused on patient issues, there are major business consequences for the pharma sector. Reluctance by payers to fund expensively developed innovative therapies, combined with high rates of generic substitution, result in declining return on investment. The cost-effectiveness of a product is now at the top of the agenda for payers globally, and pharma companies are now focusing more than ever before on this aspect in their new drug development programmes. The new CEO of GlaxoSmithKline, Andrew Witty, emphasised this in his first company results presentation recently. It raises the issue of how much longer the traditional Big Pharma model of a few blockbuster products can be sustained, and what could take its place.

September 2008

Welcome back after the summer – and we thought that you might find useful some ideas which provide a framework for thinking about the next decade.

First, many people and organisations are finding it difficult to comprehend how benign the last decade was – as the Governor of the Bank of England put it in 2006, a NICE period, standing for non-inflationary consistent expansion. The next decade is going to see us battered by global drivers of major change. We see five standing out – globalisation; raw material shortages and pricing; climate change, destined to continue for at least the next 50 years independent of any efforts by us; technology, where the effect of the IT revolution will soon be dwarfed by that of the biotech revolution; and the fact that people see images on TV or films, have a vision of a “good life” and go in search of it. We have developed a DVD which discusses these; please let us know if you would like a copy, at globalforces@samiconsulting.co.uk. Meanwhile, we are looking for a good set of words to fit with the NASTY world we see – the best suggestion will get a SAMI coffee mug: please send your suggestions to samimug@samiconsulting.co.uk.

In the middle of the current doom-laden climate, Global Business Network’s recent quarterly newsletter contained as ever a number of thought provoking articles. One was based around a short report by Peter Schwartz and the Sci Fi Visions for Tomorrow Advisory Board, called “Dare to Dream”. It identifies a number of challenges facing us but states firmly “The Future can be better. Vision matters -----“, and goes on to discuss how each of the challenges can be tackled. The report is available as a download from www.gbn.com, GBN web site.

In working with DSI, Decision Strategies International, we found a very useful framework for tying horizon scanning into the corporate learning process. It is Figure B-1 in “Peripheral Vision” by George S Day and Paul J H Schoemaker, and can be found – with their permission – on the SAMI web site under Peripheral Vision. For more information contact us on peripheralvision@samiconsulting.co.uk.

July 2008

Some thoughts as we all head off for a well deserved break:

The number of Internet users in China surpassed that of the United States in the first half of 2008, according to a report from Reuters that cites figures from the government-backed China Internet Network Information Center. The numbers were Internet users in China 221 million, in the US 216 million. This compares with 249 million in the top 5 countries of Europe (Germany, UK, France, Italy, Spain). Why is Europe not more central in Internet developments?

The recent launch of a joint CBI/QinetiQ report on innovation in services may hold a clue. The report highlighted that services companies did not as effectively tap into the innovation eco-system of universities, research, government and other networks as did manufacturing companies - they did not recognise the need to "steal ideas". CBI director-general Richard Lambert urged businesses to keep taking risks with new ideas, even during an economic slowdown: "When times get tough, firms may want to stick to what they know best rather than try out new ideas. But the services sector contributes three-quarters of the UK's economic activity, so its continued dynamism is a matter of vital importance; successful innovation comes down to people, not just processes". The report is available from the CBI's web site http://www.cbi.org.uk/ndbs/content.nsf

A Conference Board Research Report on CEO Challenge, based on results from close to 800 global CEOs, also looked at barriers to innovation. In Asia, Europe and the United States, the top barrier to innovation was cited as government regulation.Innovation was seen as of greatest concern by nearly one on five CEO's, compared with Excellence in Execution - 38.4% and Sustained and Steady Top Line Growth - 36.8%. The report is available to non-members of the Conference Board via orders@conference-board.org.

A recent conference of the Tomorrow Project looked at the skills needed in the workforce in the next 20 years. A clear theme that came out of the discussions was that education to enable retraining - at any age - was central, and that we need to think of the workforce not as 18-60 year olds but with variable configurations of work and other activities from 15 to 100. The conference saw no sign that the public or private sectors were able to tackle the challenges this poses. This work extends and updates the book "Working in the 21st Century ", by Michael Moynagh and Richard Worsley, published in 2005.

June 2008

As high summer approaches, we are all hoping to get some time off in August, but in the meantime some snippets from SAMI.

Roffey Park Institute have just published their 11th Annual Survey of Managers and their concerns. One of their findings is that managers in general and HR managers in particular believe that they should approach their roles more strategically. Capability and talent management is flagged as the greatest concern. We have picked up these ideas in our offering on Talent planning, for more details email us at talent@samiconsulting.co.uk. The report is available from their web site www.roffeypark.com, "The Management Agenda 2008".

Gill has been teaching an MBA elective at Cass Business School, on "Scenario Planning - Managing the Future", and taken as the topic for the class exercises - management in 2025 and how an MBA should reflect this. Some interesting thoughts have emerged. One is that most of the subjects taught in an MBA are being or have been largely replaced by IT systems, with thereby less need to teach these. Second, that soft skills are needed much more in the new world of contracting, peer task forces, and projects than in the old world of static organisations, but these are comparatively neglected in MBA curricula. The third is more radical - does the MBA represent a 20th century view of the world? Will specialist-taught masters and professional qualifications become more attractive than MBAs? Any thoughts on this welcome, to mba@samiconsulting.co.uk.

SAMI Fellow, John Ormerod was elected last month as Chairman of the Board of Regent’s College. Regent’s College is a private higher education institution occupying a prestigious site in the centre of London’s Regent’s Park. It comprises 5 colleges centred on two faculties: Business and Management and, Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences. The colleges offer a unique range of US and UK degrees at undergraduate, postgraduate and PhD levels. For example, the European Business School London is the UK's oldest and largest private business school, offering international business degrees incorporating languages, work experience and study abroad.

As John comments, “The future for higher education is challenging; the “business of education” is globalising but the requirements for academic standing, excellence in teaching and facilities and a commitment to freedom, openness, toleration and integrity remain paramount at the international end of the market. Regent’s College is committed to being a world player, bringing students from differing backgrounds to study together in London and in its partner institutions around the globe. However our vision is only one scenario and we therefore have to be alert and responsive to the forces, many outside of our control, which are shaping the environment in which we operate.” For further information: http://www.regents.ac.uk.

May 2008

(There was no eVECTOR in May 2008 as we issued a hard copy VECTOR)

April 2008

We hope that you had a good Easter break and are refreshed to face the next phase of financial turmoil.

With this in mind, we were interested to see an article "The Dark Side of Optimism" in the recent Conference Board Journal. The article suggests that, while optimism is widely seen as a virtue of American culture and key to success in business, and cultural norms and beliefs about good business practice increasingly stress looking at the sunny side and de-emphasizing the problematic, the end result is a bias against critical thinking. It argues such overly positive thinking is difficult to reconcile with the need to make realistic, objective assessments, so that it becomes hard, in the delicate social web of most organisations, to question the merits of any given proposal offered in good faith. We wonder how far this has contributed to the recent events in the financial markets and how far European organisations are subject to similar forces.

A group of SAMI fellows attended the European Business School London, 2008 Jean Monnet Memorial Lecture given at Regent’s College on 29th January on the subject of “The Future of Energy in Europe”, at which the principal guest speaker was Lord Browne of Madingley. It was particularly focused on security and supplies from Russia. A report of the proceedings will also be available shortly in the next EBS newsletter on the college website at http://www.ebslondon.ac.uk. This lecture is one of a series of public lectures given at Regent’s College, many of which are on a futures related theme and may be of interest to eVECTOR readers. The lectures are followed by a reception where guests can network and meet staff and students of the college. Further details can be obtained by emailing ebsl@regents.ac.uk or by checking on the college website as above.

We have found, in working with a number of clients, that futures work in general and scenario thinking in particular lacks pull through into the organisation. To strengthen the visibility of links from futures work into other parts of the organisation, we have summarised a Table by SAMI Associate Bill Ralston, click here to find the summary: linking scenarios to strategic planning. We have also appointed a new Associate who is expert on MultiCriteriaDecisionAnalysis, Colin Simmons. Through his company Krysalis he has worked with many organisations to provide a framework for decisions, and we look forward to working with him.

We also welcome Ian Pearson as a SAMI Associate: he is well known as a futurist and originator of the technology timelines published by BT. He is also reputed for his keynote speeches which are delivered in a dead pan manner which enables him to state for instance "there is more than a 50% probability of the world ending by 2080".

February 2008

The end of February - and some thoughts and updates from SAMI -

SAMI Fellow, Michael Owen, highlights one of the issues which arose from SAMI's project last year on the Future of Services to the Public. The universal provision of public services - including health - is unaffordable and so new systems will evolve. This will be especially in focus in the provision of new health technologies.

Gill Ringland discussed the role of scenarios in innovation at a seminar in the Cabinet Office in February, using a number of examples - the PowerPoint she used is on our website here (1Mb).

SAMI Principal Nick Jackson has recently done some work with Sovereign Housing Group, looking at some possible futures for the social housing sector. A short article on the results is available on our website.

With another hat on, Gill Ringland is part of a start up group in the British Computer Society on "IT Futures". If you would like to be part of this, please email gill.ringland@samiconsulting.co.uk.

SAMI Associate Tricia Lustig has just been appointed to the Faculty at Henley Management College as a Visiting Executive Fellow in the School of Learning and Knowledge Management. Her focus is Organisational Development. We extend our congratulations to Tricia; she can be reached on tricia.lustig@samiconsulting.co.uk

January 2008

So, now we are past the worst day of the year - which is apparently January 24th - some thoughts from SAMI.

The recent travails in the financial markets made us revisit a thought piece from a while ago, and on the need for less formulaic thinking about risk if, as George Soros believes, the rules of the game have fundamentally changed. For an update on our think piece, click here.

SAMI Associate Chris Skinner has been associated with some work that can help in thinking about futures for the financial services system - the scenarios from the World Economic Forum are available from Chris Skinner at chris.skinner@samiconsulting.co.uk.
{Also directly available at http://www.weforum.org/en/initiatives/Scenarios/TechnologyandInnovationinFinancialServicesScenarios/index.htm }
He has also recently published "Banking in the 21st Century" by John Wiley & Company.

The McKinsey Quarterly has included in its Top Articles of 2007, "How to improve Strategic Planning", They point out that "Almost all large companies undertake a time-consuming strategic-planning process that leaves many executives frustrated with the results." They suggest "One approach is to start the exercise not by examining the numbers but by identifying the long-term issues facing the company; another is to ensure that strategic-review meetings involve frank conversations among the ultimate decision makers." Which is of course our approach! The McKinsey Quarterly is available from McKinsey.