December 2009

December and the end of the year find us struggling in the darkness of the Northern winter, but we have found life interesting over the past months.

The Burntwood Lecture at the Royal Society on November 11th provided a fitting occasion to celebrate our 20th birthday, along with the celebration issue of Strategy and Management Insights. Over 120 people – a capacity crowd  - heard Mark Everard of the Environment Agency, John Reynolds of SAMI, and the star turn Professor Bob Watson, Chief Scientific Adviser to Defra, cover topics around the central theme of 'Using the Environmental Sciences for a Sustainable Future'. (View lectures here). The journal issue that was being launched “The Uptake of Emerging Science into Strategic Planning” can be found on our web site, www.samiconsulting.co.uk/.

We were pleased to see that an article by Charles Roxburgh in the McKinsey Quarterly is offering advice on the use of scenarios:
“Although it is surprisingly hard to create good ones, they help you ask the right questions and prepare for the unexpected. That is hugely valuable. Scenarios are a powerful tool in the strategist’s armoury. They are particularly useful in developing strategies to navigate the kinds of extreme events we have recently seen in the world economy. Scenarios enable the strategist to steer a course between the false certainty of a single forecast and the confused paralysis that often strikes in troubled times. When well executed, scenarios boast a range of advantages—but they can also set traps for the unwary.”  
This is of course the topic of “Beyond Crisis: achieving renewal in turbulent times” by Gill Ringland, Oliver Sparrow and Patricia Lustig (John Wiley, 2010) which discusses how organisations can harness the insight of their people using scenarios and other tools to survive and thrive in these troubled times.

The Institute of Director’s journal “Big Picture” is also tackling these troubled times, particularly the consequences for government of the large public sector deficit. In an article titled “How the UK can save £50 billion”, Corin Taylor focuses on cutting spending rather than raising taxes. He suggests that “efficiencies” are not the answer – that, while there is plenty of scope for increased productivity in the public sector, previous attempts to focus on efficiencies have been largely unsuccessful. He instead takes a strategic approach, such as tackling above inflation indexing and public sector pay, stopping doing things and avoiding duplication. We welcome the attempt to take a strategic approach, with a stated set of assumptions, while not necessarily agreeing with all of his conclusions.  

Meanwhile, SAMI people have been active on a number of projects in Romania, Indonesia, Singapore, the USA and Nepal where Patricia Lustig of SAMI and Sahadev Mahat presented a paper at the World Appreciative Inquiry Conference about projects run in Nepal on Community and Stakeholder Engagement and Development. We have delivered projects in the UK for a range of public and private sector clients.

Richard Walsh has been appointed to the Board of the UK Forum for Genetics and Insurance. His recent report with Professor Sandy Raeburn,“A Review Of The Genetics Moratorium And What Might Replace It”, can be found on our web site at: http://www.samiconsulting.co.uk/4geneticsmoratorium.pdf.

We are also pleased to welcome Gwyn Jones, of the Association of Sustainability Professionals, as a new Associate, and we are planning a joint event in February, introducing some of the themes and tools of a Purposefully Self-Renewing Organisation. Email us at asp@samiconsulting.co.uk for details.

So may I take this opportunity of wishing everyone greetings of the season and the ability to thrive in turbulent times!

No eVECTOR in November 2009, because we published our 20th anniversary hard copy VECTOR

October 2009

October finds us enjoying a glorious Indian summer and a number of things of interest.

The European Commission has produced a report on "The World in 2025", available from the EU bookshop http://bookshop.europa.eu . It includes 8 scenarios, built around the uncertainties of regulation, conflict vs consensus, and economic performance. One of the key ideas that emerged from the associated conference was that of transitions - that we are living in a transitional age, from a bipolar to a multipolar world, from a era built on mass product and consumption to a "socio-ecological" era, and from technological innovation to process and societal innovation.

This accords with the theme of the book - Beyond Crisis - which is now with the publishers, that the financial crisis has been getting most attention but that the long term trends in the world mean that there will be no return to Business as Usual, and organisations need to be able to adapt to living in turbulent times.

We are looking at a joint project with DSI, on the future of the European Electricity Grid - they have already published a study of the US Electricity Grid: 2025, and a copy of this can be had from Eric Kihlstromm, erickihlstrom@googlemail.com, who would also be interested to hear of potential sponsors or contributors to the project.

We are also pleased to welcome a number of new Associates. Peter Barnett has worked with Richard Walsh in health and social care policy, and is also an Adviser to Baroness Sally Greengross. Geof Cox is joint Managing Director of a pan-European group of consultants, Learning Consortium. Ilaria Frau-Hippe was an investment banker before joining the World Economic Forum scenarios team, and is now working on a PhD at Cambridge University on scenarios in the public sector. Neil MacDonald is a development expert, the author of five books on Latin America and the Caribean.

The November eSAMI will be a bumper issue to celebrate SAMI's 20th birthday!

September 2009

Well that was the summer that was -- or was not ----

SAMI Fellow John Ormerod recommends the 2009 Europe in the World Lecture, entitled ‘Jobs, Innovation and Growth‘, will be held at 6.30pm on Tuesday 24 November 2009 at Regent’s College, London. There will be an opportunity for networking during cocktails after the lecture. The event is co-sponsored by iCES (The Institute for Contemporary European Studies at Regent’s College) and the European Commission Representation in the UK. The speakers are: John Monks, General Secretary of the European Trade Union Confederation; John Cridland, Deputy Director-General of the Confederation of British Industry; and Sarah Lambert, Acting Head of the European Commission Representation in the UK.

The lecture is by invitation only but readers of Strategy and Management Insights (formerly known as e-VECTOR) can apply to have their names added to the database by emailing Jeanne-Marie Hudson at lectures@regents.ac.uk .

SAMI Principal Dr Wendy Schultz suggests that should you want to create a weak signals and horizon scanning database via 'crowdsourcing', now you can. Elina Hiltunen, respected 'weak signals' researcher, has organised a demo of the Trendwiki web resource for the upcoming European Futurists Conference Lucerne (14-16 October 2009). You share weak signals via a wiki structure, and when you see a pattern emerging that you wish to aggregate into a trend or driver, you 'buy' the needed weak signals by putting them in your 'cart'. Go here for further explanation: http://www.facebook.com/l/;www.datarangers.fi/docs/videos/trendwiki.swf

Three of us (myself, SAMI Fellow Oliver Sparrow and SAMI Principal Tricia Lustig) have been engaged in writing the book - Beyond Crisis - what the future means for organisations and its managers - and have now rehearsed the train of thought with a number of audiences and found enthusiastic endorsement of the thesis. This is that the world will not become financially benign again, that underlying factors which have been masked to date are about to erupt with devastating effect for much of the west's industry and commerce. The way to thrive in these times is to adopt a way of working in which five qualities are important - values, narrative, insight (internal and external), options and the machinery to harness the talents of the organisation. The book will be published in February next year and we are planning a number of launch events - please let us know at bc@samiconsulting.co.uk if you would like an invitation to any of these.

Meanwhile, we are pleased to announce that we are bringing the niche consultancy ChangeMonkey under the banner of SAMI. SAMI Principal Tricia Lustig has co-opted her ChangeMonkey colleagues Cathy Dunn and Andreas Priestland, who will add significant change management and leadership development experience, and Nic Pulford who adds a deep understanding of the power of well designed IT to deliver learning. Together Cathy, Tricia, Nic and Andreas make available extensive knowledge and insight of navigating the complexities of change in large and international organisations

August 2009

No August 2009 issue

July 2009

Summer is here -- and before everybody disappears for a well earned break, some snapshots of interesting items:

We presented the report commissioned by the City of London "An Assessment of the City's ICT Infrastructure" at their Research Conference in June. The pdf of the report is available via the City of London web site www.cityoflondon.gov.uk . Our research highlighted five areas which are particularly important to the financial services industry: network connectivity; data centre capability; electrical power supplies; security and resilience; and skills. While we found that the City’s network connectivity and data centres are fully fit for purpose and should cope comfortably with future developments, significant investment will be needed to ensure that the electrical power supply to the City keeps up with rising future demand.

Gill Ringland led the discussion at a "Coffee Morning" in Estonia, following on from John Reynolds' presentation at a similar event last year. The event was organised by the Estonian Development Fund, who are spearheading the development of ICT based industries in Estonia.
The video-cast is up on the web: http://www.arengufond.ee/videocasts/videocast1263/
and the slides are published in pdf here: http://www.arengufond.ee/events/event1232/

As mentioned in the March 2009 eVECTOR, the Challenge! Forum is initiating a new round of scenario generation, as it does every other year. During the last cycle, over 2,000 people contributed. This year the focus is 2040. The scenarios 2040 project has developed a number of thoughts around people, politics and social change which have been triggered by the very rich web discussion - please go to http://www.chforum.org/scenario2009/politics.shtml to read and add comments.

Adrian Davies is writing his 3rd book on Corporate Governance, "Corporate Governance into the Future", and would welcome volunteers to join him in a scenario creation workshop, to be held in the autumn, as part of this. If you would like to contribute, please email him on adrian.davies@samiconsulting.co.uk.

SAMI is welcoming two new Associates this month. Peter Barnett, with a background on pharmaceuticals and OTC, has recently completed a project for an international client on the future of social care. Geof Cox, originally in the oil industry, has interests in stakeholder and employee engagement, and a recent paper on "Rapid Strategy Development", using these tools, is on our website here.

June 2009

After a hectic conference and event season, we are getting down to work on a number of exciting projects: the financial crisis and accompanying consumer and employment hiatus has caused organisations to ask the questions that we are well placed to help with, on strategy beyond survival.

In addition, three of us (Oliver Sparrow, Patricia Lustig and Gill Ringland) have been commissioned by the publishers John Wiley to write a book on "After the Crisis - what the future means for organisations". This looks at what can be expected over the next decades, and the implications for leaders and managers of organisations. It will be published next Spring, and we are happy to discuss our findings before then - contact us on atc@samiconsulting.co.uk

A difficult issue for Europe is immigration - both legal and illegal - we have been working with Frontex, the EC Agency responsible for the EC policy on borders, and would be happy to discuss this further - contact us at immigration@samiconsulting.co.uk.

In case you missed our recent hard copy VECTOR, a pdf version can be found on our web site www.samiconsulting.co.uk with articles on “Innovation”, “The evolving use of futures tools in government foresight projects”, and “Towards the Low Carbon Economy – promised land or multiple delusion?”

No eVECTOR in May 2009, because we published a hard copy VECTOR

April 2009

Spring is sprung & it feels good!

A number of news items from us based on ideas that are emerging ---

SAMI Principal Martin Duckworth comments "The issue of world population has become topical again. It was a big issue in the 1970’s, the decade that China introduced its One-Child policy, but then seemed to go away as a topic for debate until relatively recently. But now the issue is back on the agenda.” To read his think piece on this, click here.

A new book, "Future Savvy", written by Adam Gordon of the American Management Association, is reviewed by SAMI Fellow Mike Owen, who considers it a shrewd and perceptive read for consultants and clients alike.

Nearer to home, SAMI Fellow Colin Fletcher has been looking at the UK economy and the implications for the housing market over the next years. He writes "An increasing number of commentators have latterly been suggesting that the worst of the economic downturn may be behind us and that signs of the green shoots of recovery are starting to appear in both the UK economy and housing markets. Analysis by SAMI fellows, however, suggests that we may be seeing little more than a normal seasonal improvement in the housing market and that while the level of activity may be bottoming out, the shape and speed of any housing market recovery still remains highly uncertain. Those organisations that achieve a proper understanding of the uncertainties and forces at work, and the possible alternative outturns, are likely to be best placed to minimise further risk and seize new opportunities as they arise." Click here for a more detailed commentary.

Publications by SAMI people in Q1 2009 include:
In The Journal of Creativity and Innovation, (Korea), by Gill Ringland, "How Scenario Thinking can support Innovation". Click here for more.
In Developing HR Strategy, "Talent management needs to be future-proofed" by Patricia Lustig", available in hard copy from Patricia.Lustig@samiconsulting.co.uk .

March 2009

Spring seems to be a possibility here in the UK, change is in the air, and SAMI has moved.
Please note our new address - 2b Northbrook Court, Park Street, Newbury RG14 1EA and phone number 00 44 1635 36971..

Economic green shoots may well be further away than spring. A recent analysis by Dr Oliver Sparrow suggests that there is a 50% chance of western stock markets returning to 2007 levels by 2015. If you would like a copy of his full presentation or if you would like to arrange for Oliver to deliver this or a similar presentation at a Board AwayDay or similar, please email us at economy@samiconsulting.co.uk.

Michael Moynagh and Richard Worsley of the Tomorrow Project have produced a new volume "Changing Lives, Changing Business", looking at the 7 life stages of man, how these are changing, and how they will change over the 21st century. The book is available through A&C Black's web site: http://www.acblack.com/catalogue and is a thought provoking read.

The Challenge! Forum is initiating a new round of scenario generation, as it does every other year. During the last cycle, over 2,000 people contributed. This year, the scope of the scenarios is 2040: the web site www.chforum.org has a first cut at the pre-determined factors for 2040, and an invitation to contribute. The main work will be done in the summer. The web site is also a useful source of global scenarios from previous cycles.

February 2009

Greetings from a snowy London - where the buses and tubes stopped for the weather and the advantages of being virtual manifested themselves.

On the other topic of conversation these days, the economic outlook, SAMI Fellow Oliver Sparrow has been looking at the likely trajectory of the major economies over the next few years - his think piece can be found on the SAMI website here and he would be happy to discuss the ideas further if you contact him at oliver.sparrow@samiconsulting.co.uk.

A group of experts from SAMI, Netstrategics and DSI collaborated to draw up scenarios for the future of digital communications to 2015 - what effect will the Carter report have on the industry? The scenarios are on our web site, and we would be delighted to talk about them and the implications for specific sectors, if you email us at digitalcomms@samiconsulting.co.uk.

UNCTAD have recently published a report on The Creative Economy: it can be found at http://www.unctad.org and contains among other useful items, trade data and of international trade flows of creative goods and services in world markets.

And finally, two SAMI News items - first, we are sad to announce the death of our Founder Fellow, Dr Gareth Price. Everybody who knew him will miss his insights, and his persistence. Adrian Davies, who worked with him over more than a decade at SAMI, has written an account of his life which can be found on our web site.

Last but not least, our phone number from 11 February 2009 will be 01635 36971. The old London phone number will be forwarded for the rest of the year.

January 2009

Happy 2009 to everybody - however difficult that might seem!

First a plea - we would welcome feedback on our new web site http://www.samiconsulting.co.uk - by email to web-site@samiconsulting.co.uk or direct from the site, with thanks.

The seismic shifts in the business environment are causing organisations to re-think many of their existing practices - from approach to the supply chain to the nature of management. Some of these issues have been picked up by SAMI Fellow Oliver Sparrow in a think piece entitled "Why do large organisations make mistakes". If you would like to discuss this important topic, please contact Oliver on oliver.sparrow@samiconsulting.co.uk.

As a result of a number of projects, we have become interested in the links between innovation (and scenario workshops) and the use of space. SAMI Associate Phillip Tovey was part of a EU project that looked at best practice in innovation spaces, and is implementing the ideas at Kingston University. A short introduction (pdf 2Mb) to this "Innoversity" is here.

I recently published an article in "Strategy and Leadership" on "Innovation: scenarios of alternative futures can discover new opportunities for creativity". While we are not able to put the article on the SAMI web site for copyright reasons, we can supply reprints - please email us at S&L-innovation@samiconsulting.co.uk.