. Our research highlighted five areas which are particularly important to the financial services industry: network connectivity; data centre capability; electrical power supplies; security and resilience; and skills. While we found that the City’s network connectivity and data centres are fully fit for purpose and should cope comfortably with future developments, significant investment will be needed to ensure that the electrical power supply to the City keeps up with rising future demand.
Gill Ringland led the discussion at a "Coffee Morning" in Estonia, following on from John Reynolds' presentation at a similar event last year. The event was organised by the Estonian Development Fund, who are spearheading the development of ICT based industries in Estonia.
The video-cast is up on the web: http://www.arengufond.ee/videocasts/videocast1263/
and the slides are published in pdf here: http://www.arengufond.ee/events/event1232/
As mentioned in the March 2009 eVECTOR, the Challenge! Forum is initiating a new round of scenario generation, as it does every other year. During the last cycle, over 2,000 people contributed. This year the focus is 2040. The scenarios 2040 project has developed a number of thoughts around people, politics and social change which have been triggered by the very rich web discussion - please go to http://www.chforum.org/scenario2009/politics.shtml to read and add comments.
Adrian Davies is writing his 3rd book on Corporate Governance, "Corporate Governance into the Future", and would welcome volunteers to join him in a scenario creation workshop, to be held in the autumn, as part of this. If you would like to contribute, please email him on firstname.lastname@example.org.
SAMI is welcoming two new Associates this month. Peter Barnett, with a background on pharmaceuticals and OTC, has recently completed a project for an international client on the future of social care. Geof Cox, originally in the oil industry, has interests in stakeholder and employee engagement, and a recent paper on "Rapid Strategy Development", using these tools, is on our website here.
After a hectic conference and event season, we are getting down to work on a number of exciting projects: the financial crisis and accompanying consumer and employment hiatus has caused organisations to ask the questions that we are well placed to help with, on strategy beyond survival.
In addition, three of us (Oliver Sparrow, Patricia Lustig and Gill Ringland) have been commissioned by the publishers John Wiley to write a book on "After the Crisis - what the future means for organisations". This looks at what can be expected over the next decades, and the implications for leaders and managers of organisations. It will be published next Spring, and we are happy to discuss our findings before then - contact us on email@example.com
A difficult issue for Europe is immigration - both legal and illegal - we have been working with Frontex, the EC Agency responsible for the EC policy on borders, and would be happy to discuss this further - contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org.
In case you missed our recent hard copy VECTOR, a pdf version can be found on our web site www.samiconsulting.co.uk with articles on “Innovation”, “The evolving use of futures tools in government foresight projects”, and “Towards the Low Carbon Economy – promised land or multiple delusion?”
No eVECTOR in May 2009, because we published a hard copy VECTOR
Spring is sprung & it feels good!
A number of news items from us based on ideas that are emerging ---
SAMI Principal Martin Duckworth comments "The issue of world population has become topical again. It was a big issue in the 1970’s, the decade that China introduced its One-Child policy, but then seemed to go away as a topic for debate until relatively recently. But now the issue is back on the agenda.” To read his think piece on this, click here.
A new book, "Future Savvy", written by Adam Gordon of the American Management Association, is reviewed by SAMI Fellow Mike Owen, who considers it a shrewd and perceptive read for consultants and clients alike.
Nearer to home, SAMI Fellow Colin Fletcher has been looking at the UK economy and the implications for the housing market over the next years. He writes "An increasing number of commentators have latterly been suggesting that the worst of the economic downturn may be behind us and that signs of the green shoots of recovery are starting to appear in both the UK economy and housing markets. Analysis by SAMI fellows, however, suggests that we may be seeing little more than a normal seasonal improvement in the housing market and that while the level of activity may be bottoming out, the shape and speed of any housing market recovery still remains highly uncertain. Those organisations that achieve a proper understanding of the uncertainties and forces at work, and the possible alternative outturns, are likely to be best placed to minimise further risk and seize new opportunities as they arise." Click here for a more detailed commentary.
Publications by SAMI people in Q1 2009 include:
In The Journal of Creativity and Innovation, (Korea), by Gill Ringland, "How Scenario Thinking can support Innovation". Click here for more.
In Developing HR Strategy, "Talent management needs to be future-proofed" by Patricia Lustig", available in hard copy from Patricia.Lustig@samiconsulting.co.uk .
Spring seems to be a possibility here in the UK, change is in the air, and SAMI has moved.
Please note our new address - 2b Northbrook Court, Park Street, Newbury RG14 1EA and phone number 00 44 1635 36971..
Economic green shoots may well be further away than spring. A recent analysis by Dr Oliver Sparrow suggests that there is a 50% chance of western stock markets returning to 2007 levels by 2015. If you would like a copy of his full presentation or if you would like to arrange for Oliver to deliver this or a similar presentation at a Board AwayDay or similar, please email us at email@example.com.
Michael Moynagh and Richard Worsley of the Tomorrow Project have produced a new volume "Changing Lives, Changing Business", looking at the 7 life stages of man, how these are changing, and how they will change over the 21st century. The book is available through A&C Black's web site: http://www.acblack.com/catalogue and is a thought provoking read.
The Challenge! Forum is initiating a new round of scenario generation, as it does every other year. During the last cycle, over 2,000 people contributed. This year, the scope of the scenarios is 2040: the web site www.chforum.org has a first cut at the pre-determined factors for 2040, and an invitation to contribute. The main work will be done in the summer. The web site is also a useful source of global scenarios from previous cycles.
Greetings from a snowy London - where the buses and tubes stopped for the weather and the advantages of being virtual manifested themselves.
On the other topic of conversation these days, the economic outlook, SAMI Fellow Oliver Sparrow has been looking at the likely trajectory of the major economies over the next few years - his think piece can be found on the SAMI website here and he would be happy to discuss the ideas further if you contact him at firstname.lastname@example.org.
A group of experts from SAMI, Netstrategics and DSI collaborated to draw up scenarios for the future of digital communications to 2015 - what effect will the Carter report have on the industry? The scenarios are on our web site, and we would be delighted to talk about them and the implications for specific sectors, if you email us at email@example.com.
UNCTAD have recently published a report on The Creative Economy: it can be found at http://www.unctad.org and contains among other useful items, trade data and of international trade flows of creative goods and services in world markets.
And finally, two SAMI News items - first, we are sad to announce the death of our Founder Fellow, Dr Gareth Price. Everybody who knew him will miss his insights, and his persistence. Adrian Davies, who worked with him over more than a decade at SAMI, has written an account of his life which can be found on our web site.
Last but not least, our phone number from 11 February 2009 will be 01635 36971. The old London phone number will be forwarded for the rest of the year.
Happy 2009 to everybody - however difficult that might seem!
First a plea - we would welcome feedback on our new web site http://www.samiconsulting.co.uk - by email to firstname.lastname@example.org or direct from the site, with thanks.
The seismic shifts in the business environment are causing organisations to re-think many of their existing practices - from approach to the supply chain to the nature of management. Some of these issues have been picked up by SAMI Fellow Oliver Sparrow in a think piece entitled "Why do large organisations make mistakes". If you would like to discuss this important topic, please contact Oliver on email@example.com.
As a result of a number of projects, we have become interested in the links between innovation (and scenario workshops) and the use of space. SAMI Associate Phillip Tovey was part of a EU project that looked at best practice in innovation spaces, and is implementing the ideas at Kingston University. A short introduction (pdf 2Mb) to this "Innoversity" is here.
I recently published an article in "Strategy and Leadership" on "Innovation: scenarios of alternative futures can discover new opportunities for creativity". While we are not able to put the article on the SAMI web site for copyright reasons, we can supply reprints - please email us at S&Lfirstname.lastname@example.org.