Evidence for the usefulness of futures thinking

By Gill Ringland

The best evidence I have seen for the usefulness of futures thinking is in an article written up in the recent Long Range Planning, February 2007, Peter Brews and Devavrat Purohit, "Strategic Planning in Unstable Environments". They surveyed 886 firms – multi-nationally - and found that there was a connection between type of planning and performance as follows:

1. Symbolic planning (visioning etc) -.08

2. Rational planning (conventional strategic planning carried through into departments & units) +.11

3. Transactive planning (planning that includes iterative adaptation based on external signals eg horizon scanning) +.15

4. Generative planning (plans which explictily encourage product and service innovation) +.17

Given that innovation often comes from ideas generated outside the organisation by horizon scanning or best practice comparators, there seems to be basis for futures work AS LONG AS THE ORGANISATION IS ABLE TO ACT ON IT. Futures work if the organisation will not use it has a negative correlation with performance.

This is the problem with any assessment of strategy work - it only leads to performance improvement if the organisation acts on the strategy.

July 2007