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Publications by SAMI and and SAMI members are aggregated below as:
project reports and books
and published articles.
They are in chronological order.

Published Project Reports and Books from SAMI Consulting

  • “Green jobs and occupational safety and health: Foresight on new and emerging risks associated with new technologies by 2020”

    Prepared by the UK Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL), SAMI Consulting and Technopolis Group and published by EU OSHA in April 2013. The full report is available here and the summary here.

    The report describes the project ‘Foresight of new and emerging risks to occupational safety and health associated with new technologies in green jobs by 2020’, carried out for the European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA). The outcome of the exercise is a set of scenarios covering a range of new technologies in green jobs and the impact they could have on workers’ health and safety.


  • “Here be Dragons: navigating in an uncertain world”

    Published by Choir Press at the end of last March 2012, it is available on Amazon. The title of the book which the webinar is launching, Here be Dragons, comes from the map on our cover: once there was the known world and beyond that was the unknown world – where mysterious and strange creatures such as dragons dwelt, ready to pounce upon unwary travellers. The experts – Gill Ringland, Patricia Lustig, Rob Phaal, Martin Duckworth and Chris Yapp – have come together to bring the Cycle of Renewal to life.


  • “In Safe Hands? The Future of Financial Services”

    Published as part of Long Finance’s ‘Financial Centre Futures’programme sponsored by The Qatar Financial Centre Authority. This report , prepared by SAMI (Gill Ringland) develops four scenarios in order to consider what our future could be and to understand the implications of possible technological, demographic, geo-political and environmental changes for financial services in 2050. See also http://www.longfinance.net/


  • "The Globalisation of Corporate Governance: The Challenge of Clashing Cultures"

    Published by Collins in 2011, www.collins.co.uk, Adrian Davies, author and Director of SAMI Consulting, outlines in this book how the litany of corporate governance failures in OECD companies is holding the widespread adoption of minimum global corporate standards back, and will impede the international investment necessary to re-build the global economy back to its full potential.


  • "Foresight of New and Emerging Risks to Occupational Safety and Health Associated with New Technologies in Green Jobs by 2020"

    Two reports produced for and published by the European Agency for Safety and Health at Work.
    Phase 1 Key Drivers of Change here
    Phase 2 Key Technologies here


  • "Powering Ahead"

    A power sector foresight report on the drivers of skills in the UK’s power sector over the coming decades, prepared for EU Skills and the National Skills Academy - Power, in 2011.

    The report is available in Word here.

  • National Strategic Skills Audit for Wales 2011

    A follow on study in support of UKCES for the Welsh Government, here.

  • "Automotive Retail Sector. Scenario analysis of Potential Skill Requirements in 2020"

    For the Institute of the Motor Industry, in July 2010, we developed scenarios and quantified the possible futures for the industry in 2020. The report is available here.

  • "Horizon Scanning and Scenario Building: Scenarios for Skills 2020"

    Published by UKCES in March 2010, this report , prepared by SAMI (Martin Duckworth, Nick Jackson and John Reynolds) is part of a suite of reports commissioned and prepared by UKCES as part of their National Strategic Skills Audit for England 2010. The other reports can be found at the UKCES website. http://www.ukces.org.uk.

  • "2020 Vision:The Future of UK Construction "

    A project with Experian for the Construction Skills Sector Council, in May 2008, quantified the outcomes of four scenarios for the workforce requirements to 2020, and the implications for training needs for the UK construction sector. The report is here.

  • "Beyond Crisis – achieving renewal in a turbulent world"

    Click image to go to Amazon to buy

    A hardback book by Gill Ringland, Dr Oliver Sparrow and Patricia Lustig addresses the changes that need to be made within organisations to respond to the unprecedented issues arising out of the financial crisis of 2006 – 2008. It will be published by John Wiley 19 March 2010.

  • Link to Amazon:Beyond Crisis

     
  • "Scenarios for Health and Safety in 2017"

    In 2006 the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) engaged Infinite Futures and SAMI Consulting to lead a scenario-building project with the in-house Horizon Scanning team at the Health and Safety Laboratory. The aim of the project was to develop scenarios for the ‘Future of Health and Safety in 2017’ in order to bring together the findings of the HSE horizon scanning system. An HSE Research Report describing the project has been published on the HSE website here or at www.hse.gov.uk/research/rrpdf/rr600.pdf.

  • For Natural England (2009)

    • "Global drivers of change to 2060" for Natural England here.

    • "Natural England Research Information Note RIN031" First edition 26 November 2009, England’s natural environment in 2060 - issues, implications and scenarios here

    • "Natural England Research Report NERR031" England’s natural environment in 2060 - issues, implications and scenarios, published 2009 here.

  • "An Assessment of the City’s ICT Infrastructure"

    Prepared by SAMI and published by the the City of London Corporation in June 2009.
    Available on the City of London website, here

  • "The Future of Services to the Public - Reviewing the Pressures and Challenges for Long Term Change "

    By SAMI consulting, published by CIPFA, this report summarised a project undertaken by SAMI Consulting for CIPFA in 2006 and 2007.

    The project was sponsored by lead sponsor CIPFA, with TUC, LSC, ICAEW, LGA, NHS Confederation, and the National Housing Federation and additional support from ACEVO, CBI and Confed. A research programme was led by SAMI, and the core questions were the focus of a Symposium held in Spring 2007.

    The full report is in two parts, Volume One - the main report and Volume Two - the appendices.

  • Scenarios for India and China 2015: Implications for the City of London

    By SAMI Consulting and Oxford Analytica, published by City of London, October 2006
    Download the full report or executive summary from the City of London website:
    Download the India China full report PDF (753kb)
    Download the India China executive summaryPDF (293kb)

  • "Scenario Planning: Second Edition"
    Link to Amazon:Scenario Planning

    Click image to go to Amazon to buy

    By Gill Ringland, 2006

  • "Best Practice in Corporate Governance"
    Link to Amazon:Corporate governance

    Click image to go to Amazon to buy

    By Adrian Davies, Gower Press, 2006

    Published Articles by SAMI Consulting

    • "K.I.S.S."

      By Richard Walsh, SAMI Director and Fellow, published in Cover magazine September 2012. See pdf here.
      The review of Simple Financial Products is a significant strategic development in the protection sector.
      Richard highlights some key issues and a few problems in the making.

    • "Shifting Patterns in the Pharmaceutical Industry"

      By Michael Owen, SAMI Chairman, published as a Chatham House briefing paper in The World’s Industrial Transformation Series, in October 2011. Copy available here

    • "A World Where Leaders Lead"

      By Tricia Lustig, published in HR Director, Issue 78. (http://www.thehrdirector.com)

    • "Why and How the 21st Century is Different and What Organisations Can Do"

      By Gill Ringland, published in The European Business Review 14 January - February 2011

    • "The Role of Scenarios in Strategic Foresight"

      by Gill Ringland, published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change, special issue on Strategic Insight, Volume 77, Number 9, November 2010 (see index)

    • "A system for continuous organizational renewal"

      by Oliver Sparrow and Gill Ringland, Published in STRATEGY & LEADERSHIP journal VOL. 38 NO. 4 2010, pp. 34-41.
      Discusses the advantages of and the mechanisms of the purposeful self-renewing organization (PS-RO).
      To arrange for a transcript please contact Lynda McGill

    • "A Nation of Discontent - What could the 20th of October 2010 Mean for the Utilities Industry?"

      by Gill Ringland, Published in Utility Week w/c 8 November 2010 . Text here and pdf here.

    • "A Nation of Discontent - What could the Comprehensive Spending Review mean for the Health Insurance industry?"

      Richard Walsh, in Cover Magazine, December 2010. Text here and pdf here.

    • "The role of Appreciative Inquiry in meeting the challenges of the next decade"

      Patricia Lustig and Gill Ringland July 2010. The next decade will present many uncertainties and organisational challenges on an unprecedented scale. As the financial crisis winds its way through the system, a new world order is being revealed. There will be no return to business as usual. This article explores the changes in the external world, outlines how organisations can cope with the uncertainty these changes bring, and in particular the role that Appreciative Inquiry can play. It is based on the frameworks discussed in more detail in “Beyond Crisis” by Gill Ringland, Oliver Sparrow and Patricia Lustig.

    • "Frameworks for coping with Post-normal Times: a response to Ziauddin Sardar"

      By Gill Ringland in "Futures" Volume 42, Issue 6, published in August 2010. A copy of the article is available through Lynda McGill.

    • "Ready for renewal"

      In March 2010, “Ready for renewal?” , an article by Colin Fletcher and Gill Ringland in “The Treasurer”, the journal of the Association of Corporate Treasurers envisages a very different economic order coming into operation over the next twenty years and explains how businesses can adapt successfully.

    • "Risk and rapid change"

      In AgendaNi (March 2010) an interview with Gill Ringland: "Scenario planner Gill Ringland talks about the key risks facing organisations in today’s world and why ideas need to be tested, not just dreamed up."

    • "Developing the Learning Habit”

      For Business Leadership Review, here (January 2010) by SAMI Associate Elizabeth Lank.

    • "How Scenario Thinking can support Innovation"

      In The Journal of Creativity and Innovation, by Gill Ringland, here.

    • "Talent management needs to be future-proofed"

      In Developing HR Strategy,by Patricia Lustig. Hard copies available from Patricia on Patricia.Lustig@samiconsulting.co.uk

    • "Potential driver of Future Environmental Issues" and "Wind Tunnelling. The Rapid Scenario-based Testing of Emerging Issues"

      By Martin Duckworth, Jo Ravetz, John Reynolds in Environmental Scientist in July 2009.
      The articles are reproduced here
      A copy of the full magazine is available here.

    • "Rapid and Inclusive Strategy Development"

      By Geoff Cox 2009 (Contains parts of a paper first published in Strategy Magazine November 2004 Issue 4)
      The article is reproduced here.

    • "How Scenario Thinking can support Innovation"

      By Gill Ringland in the Journal of Creativity and Innovation,(Q1 2009 Korea).
      The article is reproduced here.

    • "Talent management needs to be future-proofed"

      By Patricia Lustig in Developing HR Strategy (Q1 2009)
      Hard copies available from Patricia on Patricia.Lustig@samiconsulting.co.uk

    • "Whither UK Housing?"

      Colin Fletcher, SAMI Fellow, has prepared a short note on the UK Housing market in the wake of the financial crisis in the UK.
      His paper is reproduced here

    • "The Future of Communications: 2015"

      SAMI Consulting got together with NetStrategics, specialists in communications industry regulation and strategy, and DSI, focused on helping organisations make strategic decisions, to map out some scenarios based on the key trends and developments that are driving the telecommunications industry forward.
      A summary of their output is reproduced here

    • "Scenario as a Tool in Management Development"

      By Gill Ringland and Michael Owen
      The scenario creation process can provide a team with shared insights and a shared language. This has led to the use of scenarios as a management development tool, and a team-building tool. The methodology is the same. Here two examples are considered of using scenarios for the development of young professional managers who have been identified as ‘high flyers
      The full article is reproduced here

    • "Using scenarios to improve Marketing"

      By Andrew Curry, Gill Ringland and Laurie Young in Strategy and Leadership . Reprints are available from Gill Ringland at Sami

    • "Resilence in Corporate Strategy"

      By SAMI Fellow, John Reynolds, presented to the Richmond Group meeting early in 2007 .
      A Powerpoint copy of his presentation can be seen here (1.7Mb).

    • Should we believe the IEA’s scenarios for 2050?

      By Gill Ringland of SAMI Consulting
      In its report on world strategic energy options for last July’s G8 summit in St. Petersburg the International Energy Agency (IEA) used scenarios to describe how energy technologies could develop between now and 2050, in support of the G8 Plan of Action. This article onsiders whether the IEA’s scenarios fulfilled the role of exploring qualitatively different futures, or whether they were trapped in the assumptions of the present.
      The full article is reproduced here

    • "Positive Approaches to Change -Applications of Solutions Focus and Appreciative Inquiry at Work"

      Edited by Mark McKergow and Jenny Clarke, SolutionsBooks (March 2005)
      Patricia Lustig of SAMI Consulting contributed to chapters entitled:
      "Organisational Constellations meets Appreciative Inquiry" - A creative experiment in integrating two organisational transformation (OT) disciplines
      and "Dreams do come true" - Community building with Appreciative Inquiry in a small Nepalese village
      Download flyer, here

    • "The cultural contradictions of managing change: using horizon scanning in an evidence-based policy context",

      By SAMI Principal Dr Wendy Schultz in Foresight Vol 8 No 4.
      This paper won the award for best paper in "Foresight" in 2006.
      The main point of the paper is to point out that there is a cultural contradiction between horizon scanning and traditional research. Traditional research looks for consensus, is mostly mono-disciplinary and theoretically grounded. Horizon scanning for emerging issues is based often on one or two cases, and experts will often violently attack reports of emerging issues of change, as they represent challenges to current paradigms and structures of expertise, power, and entitlement; are often noticed initially by fringe sources and challenge previous theoretical structures, forcing the construction of new theories. This cultural contradiction is one of the reasons that organisations - whether public or private sector - find it hard to react effectively to the results of horizon scanning.
      The full article is reproduced here

    • Burning Issues

      By Martin Duckworth, Utility Week, February 2006.
      Among scientists, there is more or less a consensus that climate change is real and happening now. They agree that the models are getting better and more credible and that the IPCC climate projections over the next century are reasonable, although a big margin of uncertainty still remains. In conjunction with the Futures Forum, we looked at four scenarios where the likely outcome was determined by public attitudes and by whether continuing research found the climate change threat to be limited or serious. Click here for full text

    • As Radical as Money

      In an article in GC, September 2006, Geoff Llewellyn argues that the consequences of the identity card could prove as profound as those that came from the development of fiduciary money Click here for full text

    • New Technology Wave - Scenarios for Europe in 2020

      A paper edited by Gill Ringland in 2004. The High Level Expert Group (HLEG), advising the EC on the research implications of the converging nano, bio, info and cogno technologies (NBIC), requested the work reported here. Scenarios or Europe in 2020 were developed to inform the discussions of the HLEG on the development of research agendas and policy options related to converging echnologies.

      We found that Europe in 2020 will be affected by a number of factors, including demographic change and technology advances, but the major effect of NBIC technologies in particular on the economy and society will be later than 2020. However there would be many pecific industries and processes affected by NBIC technologies in the 2020 timescale, and thus research agendas well before then. Click here for full text (pdf)

    • An uncertain future for management consulting

      A paper by Gill Ringland and Azfar Shaukat, 2004. What will the world of management consultancy look like in 2020? After decades of astonishing growth in which the management consultancy industry has trebled in size to $120 billion per year over eight years, the future looks decidedly uncertain.A variety of complex forces have converged,squeezing the industry in many dimensions simultaneously, with far-reaching implications to its structure and future. Click here for full text (pdf)

    • Scenario planning: answering the "so what" question for operating managers

      This paper by Gill Ringland was published in "Strategy & Leadership" in November 2003. Scenario thinkers and operational managers do not find it easy to communicate with each other. This paper discusses ways in which scenarios can be used in the line units of the organisation and the role of strategists and corporate planners in making this bridge. It uses case studies to illustrate five applications: to generating options, portfolio management, business plans, market planning and pattern recognition.

    • Scenarios For The Future Of Europe’s Regions

      This paper by Alexander Fink, of the Scenario Management International, Germany and Michael Owen, of St Andrews Management Institute, UK, was presented at the World Future Society Conference in July 2003. In November 2002, a scenario planning project was undertaken to explore "The Future of Europe’s Regions" - an issue which will assume increasing importance as the process of EU enlargement moves ahead in the coming years.

      Participants came from 13 European countries. The scenario horizon extended to twenty years ahead; and a fairly pragmatic definition of what constitutes a European "region" was adopted, to embrace both administrative and cultural dimensions. More than seventy separate factors were initially identified: these spanned influences deriving from within the European regions; influences emanating from the European environment that surrounds the European regions; and factors that contain implications for the development of the general, more global sphere that surrounds the European regions.

      These factors produced five coherent, credible scenarios of how Europe’s regions could develop over the next twenty years. The scenarios highlighted the key driving forces that will determine the outcomes for Europe’s regions over the time-scale. The contradictions and paradoxes exposed pose many profound challenges for European citizens and policy makers, and challenge the historic US-Europe relationship.

    • Application of scenario planning to corporate social responsibility

      This paper by Gill Ringland and Adrian Davies was published in the Corporate Social Responsibility Monitor in March 2003. It examines the role of scenario planning in corporate social responsibility, giving examples from real life. It shows that scenario planning provides a process for structuring the development of CSR policies and controlling their implementation.

    • Using scenarios to focus R&D

      This paper by Gill Ringland was published in "Strategy & Leadership" in January 2003. It focuses on the role of scenarios in planning Research and Development (R&D). R&D programmes often focus on the technology, which is relatively forecastable. But the output of R&D programmes will enter a world in which lifestyles and society are changing. By using scenarios to explore alternative views of the future, R&D programmes can be designed to anticipate change, to watch for signs of the changes, and to be more robust. The paper describes in some detail an example of using scenarios for an Information and Communication Technology R&D programme. The implications for corporate planners are drawn out.

    • "Scenarios in Business”

      By Gill Ringland
      John Wiley, April 2002, ISBN 0-470-84382-9

    • Direct-to Consumer Communications of Rx Medicines

      Mike Owen is the joint author with Gary Lyon (Nicholas Hall & Company, 2002)

    • "Scenarios in Public Policy”

      By Gill Ringland
      John Wiley, April 2002, ISBN 0-470-84383-7

    • Making the most of scenario planning

      A paper by Gill Ringland, March 2001. Scenarios are beginning to be widely used in the public sector, as well as in business. Click here for full text

    • A Strategic Approach to Corporate Governance

      by Adrian Davies (Gower 1999) This book builds on earlier experience and research to achieve a new synthesis. A further book "The Practice of Corporate Governance" is due out in early 2006.

    • Scenarios for Scotland - A Journey to 2015

      A sponsored scenario planning study of Scotland's future, published in 1999, prepared by SAMI Consulting, St Andrews University and Strathclyde University. Full report available here

    • The Strategic Role of Marketing

      by Adrian Davies (McGraw-Hill 1995).

    • Strategic Leadership

      by Adrian Davies (Woodhead Faulkner 1991)

    • Other papers by Gill Ringland are:


      "Scenario Planning”, for Bloomsbury Business Encarta, April 2001.
      "Scenarios in ICL”, a chapter for “Prospectives Etudes”, March 2001
      "Innovation in communicating ideas about the future”, International Journal of Innovation, March 2000
      "Why Forecasts go Wrong”, Long Range Planning, October 1999
      "London in 2020”, Planning in London, March 1999
      "London in 2020”, Gresham College, Barnards Inn, Holborn, London, February 1999
      "Why we get forecasts wrong”, Entretiens Science & Defence, November 1998
      "Changes in Telecoms Traffic”, with Nuno Caldeira, Handbook on Telecoms in the 21st Century for Telecoms Managers, TUA, February 1998
      "Why are planners talking Scenarios?”, Accountancy, January 1998
      "Scenario Planning – Managing for the future”, John Wiley, ISBN 0-471-97790-X, November 1997

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