Although the future is inherently uncertain, we have identified a number of major drivers of change that will have a significant effect.  The speed at which these drivers develop and the scale of their impact remain uncertain. However, a good foresight project should begin by considering the effect of these drivers on the subject in question.  Combined with horizon scanning and expert interviews, these drivers can then be tailored to provide the structure for scenario analysis.

SAMI have produced a summary of twelve key drivers of change that we believe to be important for futures thinking:

For each of these drivers we examine the effect  it is having now, in the medium-term and by 2030. We also explore the factors that might push in the opposite direction, critical uncertainties and wild cards – low probability events that could disrupt the trend. All of this is supported by a range of references.