ESPAS Horizon Scanning

We recently reviewed the EC Strategic Foresight Report, entitled Resilience 2.0, but ESPAS (the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System) also produces frequent Horizon Scanning reports. Their most recent reports from 2025 (Issues 7 and 8 – earlier Issues do not appear to be easily accessible) identify 14 or 15 signals of change. In each they have focussed on describing the details of three of them.

They seem to have deliberately looked for “weak signals”, some very uncertain, moving a long way beyond the usual megatrends, which leads to a very interesting set of ideas. The result, naturally, is that many people will dismiss most of them as being too unlikely to be of concern, except perhaps for those that are central to an organisation’s interests.

In Issue 7, published in March this year, the three topics ESPAS picked out to examine in more detail using Futures Wheels were:

• Neuroethical world

• Diplomatic non-immunity

• Weather manipulation and its conspiracies.

A neuroethical world is one that protects data gathered from technologies that extracted from brainwaves. A law in Colorado state gives citizens the right to access and delete their neural data. But what are the concerns if such data becomes commercially available?

In a society where such data was controlled by legislation, for example by an extension of GDPR, citizens would have the right to switch off, or opt out. With good regulation, we could see improved productivity and a more dynamic economy.

At another extreme, there could be a commercial glut of brain data leading to a dehumanising of society. Corporations and repressive regimes could manipulate citizens, leading to a development of “thought crimes”.

Diplomatic non-immunity is emerging as embassies and their staff are being challenged by geopolitical conflicts. Examples include Israel’s bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus, and Ecuadorian police forcing entry into the Mexican embassy last year to arrest a former vice president who had been seeking asylum.

Most of the perceived outcomes of a continuation of this trend are unattractive if we are looking for global cohesion and communication. The report envisages a growing lack of trust undermining the ability to reach international agreements, and challenges to international trade, reducing volumes and slowing growth.

Smaller diplomatic networks leads to less mutual understanding, while the increasing role of private actors leads to more ad hoc approaches and fewer common rules and standards.

Weather manipulation is becoming an increasingly popular response to uncontrolled global warming. Various geo-engineering techniques seem to be more plausible – whether it is manipulating water temperatures or seeding clouds to deflect sunlight.  At the same time, conspiracy theories are building that current extreme weather events are the result of domestic plans, or foreign interventions. As the climate becomes more stressed, both these trends will accelerate.

As the science advances, we could hope for better understanding leading to increased security and adaptation, and for new business models and international agreements. However, this may run counter to increasing nativism and the decline of multinational organisations.

Increased conspiracy theories would undermine greenhouse gas reduction efforts, creating a vicious circle, and disinformation would support populist parties.

Eleven other unusual signals of change were also identified:

Younger people getting cancer:  Mainly affecting the digestive system, these cancers have complex causes and are probably associated with lifestyles;

AI trained for human shortcomings: some systems playing strategy games are learning to lie;

Gamifying voting: turning expressing a vote into “an engaging and rewarding adventure” with redeemable points;

Fracturing Greentech global supply chains: trade clashes between US and China are disrupting green supply chains, affecting Europe too;

Deteriorating late adulthood conditions: an ageing population and tight health budgets make sustaining health more difficult;

Wombfare: declining fertility rates are leading to “Wombfare” - the use of fertility as a political weapon to defeat rival ethnic and religious groups;

Extensions of citizenship: with growing Chinese state investments in international infrastructures, the concept of territorial sovereignty becomes blurred;

Recognising chaotic climate change: “butterfly effects” could mean that the smallest efforts against climate change anywhere in the world can end up having world-changing outcomes;

Engineering the gut microbiome:  human gut microorganisms are now known to have an impact on health, so using gene editing could have major benefits;

Adolescents on financial markets:  8% (over 250,000) of 13-16-year-olds hold high-risk crypto assets, sometimes confusing gambling, trading, investing and entertainment.

Issue 8 of the ESPAS Signals of Change series from July this year will be the subject of a future blogpost.

Written by Huw Williams, SAMI Principal

The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily of SAMI Consulting.

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