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This is the second of two blogs looking at the impact and importance of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Part 1 was an overview of the issue and its potential geopolitical importance. Part 2 looks at the potential implications in detail. Modern economies burn hydrocarbons. They build with them, wrap and package with them, fertilise with them, cool with them, fly with them, clean with them, seal with them, lubricate with them, and sterilise with them. Medicines and medic

This is the first of two blogs looking at the impact and importance of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Part 1 is an overview of the issue and its potential geopolitical importance. Part 2 will look at the potential implications in additional detail. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz places the world at risk of a major global economic and geopolitical shock. The closure is not merely an “oil shock”, affecting the global supply of oil and natural gas. It is already

A changing global landscape, and how might the land lie in the future In the first blog we summarised the disruption to geopolitics caused by the end of the “New World Order”, the rise of China and the BRICS countries, events such as Covid-19 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the impact of the second Trump Presidency on the United States and its relations with other powers and regions. The blog identified growing pressures on the global systems of international trade, an

The self-appointed National Preparedness Commission has updated its list of Strategic Issues first produced in 2020. The NPC likes to think of itself taking a “a systems view of national preparedness” so its selection of issues can be wide-ranging and eclectic. It seeks to lobby Government into adopting a more structured approach to preparedness and resilience, and critiques Government strategies such as 2023’s UK Resilience Framework (UKGRF), the Resilience Action Plan (RAP

This blog is the 6th in the SIP blog series; a set of blogs shared among the partners of the Sustainable Innovation Pathways project. This cross-border, collaborative effort brings together foresight, financial forecasting and technology readiness levels to understand where companies, industries, and countries can best decarbonise. Decarbonisation is no longer about compliance or reputation. It is about staying in business and gaining a future competitive advantage. This is n

This blog is the fifth in the SIP blog series, a set of blogs shared among the partners of the Sustainable Innovation Pathways project. This cross-border, collaborative effort brings together foresight, financial forecasting and technology readiness levels to understand where companies, industries, and countries can best decarbonise. The majority of net zero and decarbonisation strategies fail not because the goal is incorrect but rather because the approach is insufficient.

This blog is the third in the SIP blog series, a set of blogs shared among the partners of the Sustainable Innovation Pathways project. This cross-border, collaborative effort brings together foresight, financial forecasting and technology readiness levels to understand where companies, industries, and countries can best decarbonise. In the first two blogs, we argued that net zero has been absorbed into realpolitik and defence strategy. Climate action survives because it now

This blog is the first in the SIP blog series, a set of blogs shared among the partners of the Sustainable Innovation Pathways project. This cross-border, collaborative effort brings together foresight, financial forecasting and technology readiness levels to understand where companies, industries, and countries can best decarbonise. It has become fashionable to say that climate has “slipped down the agenda”. The headlines are about war in Europe and the Middle East, defence

The EU’s 2025 Strategic Foresight Report focuses on resilience, dealing with the increasing levels of uncertainty in its environment. It...

The Government Office for Science has produced an updated report on the technology mix needed in key emitting sectors to reach net zero...

Ask a minister how we’re going to pay for pensions, fund healthcare, equip the armed forces, support innovation, or build green...

Introduction It has become a fashionable provocation to assert that "China is going to win, so the question is how America is going to...