National Preparedness Commission – New Strategic Issues

The self-appointed National Preparedness Commission has updated its list of Strategic Issues first produced in 2020. The NPC likes to think of itself taking a “a systems view of national preparedness” so its selection of issues can be wide-ranging and eclectic. It seeks to lobby Government into adopting a more structured approach to preparedness and resilience, and critiques Government strategies such as 2023’s UK Resilience Framework (UKGRF), the Resilience Action Plan (RAP) in 2025, as well as the Strategic Defence Review (SDR) and the National Security Strategy (NSS).

This latest update identifies thirteen new, evolving or accelerating issues plus a set of cross-cutting themes.

Demographic changes triggered by Climate Change

Some estimates suggest that a billion people will be displaced because of climate change by 2050 – irregular immigration into the UK could increase substantially. Food supply chains could also be affected and we have already seen the impact of changing weather patterns on the yield and quality of UK harvests.

Climate change effects are here now, but action is behind the curve

Awareness of climate effects is poor (demonstrated by the recent Public Perceptions of Risk Survey delivered by the Cabinet Office). There is insufficient underwriting capital within the insurance sector to underwrite systemic risks arising from Climate Change. Standards and tolerances in the built environment are not yet factoring in the kinds of extreme temperatures over sustained periods that are becoming normal.

Food production will need to compete with wind and solar farms as well as housebuilding priorities and biodiversity protection measures. The pattern of building on land at risk from natural hazards is now established. Increasing extreme weather events driven by Climate Change are raising awareness but not yet sufficient action. Wildfires in rural or peri-urban areas are becoming more frequent during prolonged dry spells, as heat levels reach high enough temperatures for other consequences to be felt simultaneously (increased illness, failures in infrastructure, etc).

Generational tensions: Rising numbers of disaffected young people in some parts of the world, while others have an ageing population

In the UK, a significant issue is the affordability of pension schemes as our population ages. Of particular concern is the number of over-50s who are exiting the workforce early – a trend that has been growing since the pandemic.  Many suggest a widening gap between generations in respect of perceptions, expectations and priorities. Together with growing financial inequalities, this fuels societal division and potentially social unrest in extreme cases.

Secularism and commercialism v rigid belief systems

Around the world an inherent conflict is developing between secularism and commercialism on one side, and rigid belief systems on the other. Adherence to belief systems of one kind or another continues, but layers of identity, philosophy and belonging exist alongside those beliefs. Aided by social networks, individuals are able to self-select their ‘tribes’ and to reinforce their thinking (radical or otherwise) within those groups, and often largely without exposure to other opinions or concerns. The result is a fragmented, incoherent and inconsistent world view, which jeopardises social cohesion in general, and democratic stability in particular.

The impact of shocks and stresses will not be felt equally

Shocks and major disruptions can affect those who are least prepared more deeply than others, and with longer-lasting consequences. Those who are vulnerable in some way (financially, mentally or physically, for example) often live in constrained circumstances, in poorer neighbourhoods or less well-maintained properties.

The current Government has continued the previous administration’s focus on supporting vulnerable people. Under the three pillars of 2023’s UK Resilience Framework (UKGRF), a ‘whole of society’ approach to resilience was envisaged. The 2025 Resilience Action Plan (RAP) has a strong emphasis on protecting the vulnerable, supported by: a new Risk Vulnerability Tool to help identify where support might be needed in a given scenario; a National Security Risk Assessment (NSRA) Expert Advisory Panel on risk and vulnerable people; and an intent to use the National Exercising Programme to test provision for the vulnerable.

Changing world order

As US pre-eminence gives way to a multi-polar world, “grey zone” conflict and non-state actors can cause disruption and ungoverned spaces. Changing world order also affects our global trading partnerships, including the UK’s dependence on other nations for a significant proportion of food, oil and many other imports. Sharp changes in tariffs are testing partnerships and agreements and driving volatility into financial markets.

Worsening geopolitical situation

A related point notes increasing and more widespread ‘sub threshold’ aggression, notably in cyber attacks - often using proxies - but also including displays of strength in naval, military or air force.

Whilst those working in, or close to, defence are calling for greater urgency and cross-Government collaboration to move the UK to a state of ‘warfighting readiness’, others within Government do not seem to recognise the threat in the same way.  The SDR is focused on defence against international aggression but includes a specific chapter on the need for greater resilience and better preparedness and, once again, calls for a “national conversation” and a national whole-of-society effort.

Competition for natural resources and resource insecurity

Access to, ownership and security of supply chains for critical resources (rare earth minerals, food, water, oil, etc) is increasingly contested. Governments are juggling foreign and trade agreements with a desire to build sovereign assets and control at the same time as the related issue of global power re-distribution and changing alliances takes effect.

Perhaps the most significant concern here is access to, and refinement of, rare earth minerals required for renewable energy technologies where China still holds a near monopoly.  Government’s approach, described in the Modern Industrial Strategy is to pursue a selective focus on 8 key industries and seek stronger supply networks and sovereign capabilities within the systems they rely on.

Vulnerability of existing and ageing critical infrastructure

The critical infrastructure of the UK is ageing with decades of under investment and often inadequate maintenance and replacement regimes. This will be exacerbated by the impact Climate Change. The cumulative effects of long-term under-investment demand a new approach to maintaining infrastructure in which HM Treasury adopts a mechanism for funding whole-of-life ‘build, maintain, optimise and decommission’.

Public services remain in a poor state, affecting resilience of individuals and communities

National resilience relies on healthy, fit and engaged citizens with capacity and agency to act. This is not what we have in the UK today. Health and social care, schools, transport infrastructure, justice systems and housing are all creaking at the seams. Improvement is likely to be slow and probably non-linear. With a  timescale likely to exceed the length of a normal electoral mandate.

Increasing importance of subsea and space, exposing vulnerabilities in these congested, contested domains

Much of our daily lives, systems and services rely on satellite communications, Position, Navigation and Timing (PNT), and earth observation capabilities. Given its centrality and criticality to our daily lives and essential functions, space should rightly be considered part of our critical infrastructure. It also features in the SDR “all-domain” mindset.

Threats to satellites include accidental collision or debris strikes, deliberate damage by hostile actors, spoofing or jamming of signals, and extreme space weather. Much of this is impossible to predict and we need to be much more prepared for disruption to space services.

Similarly, undersea cables which carry 95% of global data are critical yet vulnerable. Piracy too puts import networks at risk.

Vulnerability of ungoverned spaces including space and subsea domains, cyberspace and the electromagnetic (EM) spectrum

In another closely linked section, the report discusses “ungoverned spaces” where satellites and undersea cables are vulnerable to attack.

AI, LLMs and machine learning accelerating malign activity as well as accidental or embedded risks

Our collective capacity to verify, validate and identify trustworthy information is not keeping pace with the risks. Misinformation, disinformation and AI hallucinations all contribute to this shadowy picture and are difficult to manage. Quantum computing is fast emerging as a threat to security – specifically encryption. As a disruptive technology it has potential both to drive a massive uplift in our data handling capabilities, but also to significantly heighten the risks in our infrastructures and systems.

There is also the tendency to technology to be infallible. The ability to notice when the ‘machine gets it wrong’ will rapidly deteriorate as new generations increasingly and implicitly trust agentic technology.

While most of these strategic issues are well-known and often explored (and their presentation a little muddled), it was interesting to see the state of public services and the vulnerability of existing infrastructure identified as risks to resilience.

But most of the report focusses not on the risk but on general actions that could be taken to improve “preparedness”.  The overarching themes are “a whole of society approach” that requires meaningful dialogue with the public in a “national conversation” to improve awareness. With Government having little capacity to coordinate all but national level communications, a network or coalition of engaged and willing actors needs to emerge.

Organisations and businesses also have a key role - they have a duty of care to their own employees and to their customers or service users, but they also have a wider responsibility to the communities in which they operate and the supply chains of which they are part. Indeed, the mutual interdependence of society means that all must be involved.

A related concern is the UK’s siloed and fragmented decision-making, regulation and governance model, which tracks too closely to individual industries or sectors, and is a long way from being fit for the purpose of governing systems and essential national functions.

The report’s final call is for:

• Education: the biggest opportunity we have for dealing with an uncertain, complex and difficult world.

• Social cohesion: to be nurtured as the bedrock of national preparedness.

• Household preparedness: an expectation, not a recommendation.

• A “national conversation” including a ‘preparedness coalition’ of influencers and actors who can promulgate positive and verified information.

• Economic preparedness and vitality to drive investment capability – a shift from ‘just in time’ to ‘just in case’.

Written by Huw Williams, SAMI Principal

The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily of SAMI Consulting.

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