What future for European Security? ESPAS Conference, 3 November 2026
This year’s Conference of ESPAS (The European Strategy and Policy Analysis System) was a serious one focused on the implications for Europe of its immediate difficulties with Russia, the USA and China. This blog will highlight the main issues addressed at the Conference. It was a sobering event. Europe needs to act quickly, radically and resolutely to deal with the threats it faces externally, and the potential lack of unity within.
The Triangle of Pressure
In his keynote address, Steven Everts, Director of the European Institute for Security Studies, described Europe as living in a “triangle of pressure”, between
Russia, whose invasion of Ukraine has already spilled over into hybrid conflict with Europe, and may well trigger a full armed conflict;
China, which seeks to use its economic and technological strength to coerce Europe; and
The USA, which under President Trump has become ideologically hostile to Europe, and more open to building economic and other links to Russia.
The Conference was held on the same day as the midterm elections in the USA, so the outcome was unknown. The impact of the results on the US political order has been at as significant as could reasonably have been forecast, but it is not yet clear how the Democrat victories in both Houses of Congress will affect US policy towards Europe. President Trump has another two years to serve, and will continue to wield the powers given to him under the Constitution, including the power to veto legislation from Congress and to issue executive orders, although he can expect to face greater challenge from the Democrat-controlled Congress.
The triangle of pressure described by Stephen Everts resonates with the themes in the Draghi Report (2025) which describes how Europe has lost competitiveness, and in Chapter 4 specifically addresses the question of increasing security and decreasing dependencies.
The Present: Hybrid Conflict
The conference frequently referred back to the Draghi Report, and the question of building security through increased resilience and closing gaps in Europe’s security structure was a recurrent theme. Indeed, it was notable that this year’s conference was focused on events that are happening now, or are likely to happen in the future. While the conference was billed as looking forward as far as 2040, the actual discussions were focused on the short term, and on the immediate challenges to European security.
This is understandable. Hybrid warfare is already taking place. Victor Negrescu, MEP and Vice-President of the European Parliament reminded delegates in his presentation that in December 2024, the results of the first round of voting in the Romanian Presidential Election were annulled because of hybrid attacks, cyber-attacks and other sabotage, believed to have originated in Russia.
More recently there have been drone incursions over European countries, incursions into territorial waters, and a build-up of Russian military infrastructure close to the Baltic States. In effect, hybrid warfare has already begun. The main uncertainty is how it will develop.
Similarly, the Trump administration’s support for close links with Russia has shown that Europe would be foolish to trust America to come to Europe’s aid if attacked by Russia. The potential damage of a direct war with Russia should not be underestimated. One delegate cited a report from Ukraine that 14% of all housing stock, affecting over 3 million households, had been damaged or destroyed since Russia began its invasion.
So the focus on the present and the immediate leads to some clear essentials. In terms of security and defence, these include greater cooperation and co-ordination of defence and security. SAFE (Security and Action for Europe) provides a vehicle for pump-priming investment in strategic autonomy, rearmament and defence readiness, as part of the EU’s “Readiness 2030” plan.
More specifically, speakers at the conference identified some individual priorities, including:
Strategic investment in building up Europe’s capabilities. The figure of 5% as a benchmark for defence spending was mentioned by more than one speaker. Some countries are well on the way towards this. Others are a very long way off;
Design is critical: developing the capacity and the systems required for a 21st century conflict, learning the lessons from Ukraine and from other theatres.
Filling gaps: there are some areas, for example detection and interception of sea drones, where Europe is lagging. Access to satellite systems is a much greater priority, having seen the USA unilaterally limit Ukraine’s access to Starlink satellite systems in October.
The clear message from the conference was that there is no time to lose in building up and redesigning defence systems and filling gaps. Russia is building up its own stocks of weapons even while the war in Ukraine continues. It is also accumulating combat experience, for all its problems on the battlefield.
As well as the military priorities, the nature of the hybrid conflict, and the domestic challenges facing Europe mean that there are other drivers to be understood, and other (non- military) issues to be managed. Again, the Draghi Report is an excellent source document for this, as it addresses the social, demographic, environmental and economic challenges facing Europe as well as defence and security.
Globally, the rules-based order, which has been central to Europe, is weakening:
Rules of competition are increasingly arbitrary; “more shocks, fewer absorbers” as one speaker put it;
Non-government actors are becoming more powerful in the economic sphere (big tech, crypto-currencies, shadow fleets) as well as militarily;
Trade barriers are growing, and trade is increasingly weaponised;
and
Energy security has become critical following the US attack on Iran and the closure of Hurmuz.
The Conference identified specific areas of concern, including:
Political, social and economic divisions in Europe, which are fostering opposition to Europe’s political institutions, and opposition to its strong support for Ukraine – for example the strong performances of National Rally and the AfD in France and Germany respectively;
A historic loss over time not only of manufacturing capacity, but of skills necessary in what may soon be a wartime economy – these losses need to be made good, and might even be an opportunity for the EU’s economy and its workers;
Social media and populism amplifying a sense of crisis and decline.
Conclusion
Although ESPAS is primarily a part of the EU’s architecture, speakers at the conference last week reinforced the point that Europe is more than the EU. Ukraine is at the heart of the confrontation with Russia, and the EU has supported Ukraine even when the Trump administration has sought to isolate it. Norway, the UK and Turkey are all important partners in ensuring security.
But the EU is the heart of Europe, and it faces immense challenges. The challenges it faces are many faceted, and link to each other. They challenge European governance to be able to work beyond a system of functional and/or departmental silos. Europe needs to change and prepare for conflict very urgently, and while it may hope for improved relations with the USA in the future, it cannot assume this – certainly not in the short term. And Europe must be ready for a long period of pressure.
There can be no complacency. Stephen Everts described three possible scenarios for a future Europe:
Dependent Europe – structurally locked into others’ systems, susceptible to foreign leverage, leaving Europe’s future more uncertain;
Bilateralised Europe – “capability islands in some sectors and some regions within Europe, but fragmented, and moving at different speeds and in different directions; and
Sovereign Europe – a co-ordinated Europe of choice.
We might know which of these scenarios we would prefer, but the sobering message of ESPAS 2026 was that the outcome is far from certain.
Written by David Lye, SAMI Fellow
The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily of SAMI Consulting.
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