ESPAS Horizon Scanning Issue 8

We recently reviewed the ESPAS (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System) Horizon Scanning report, Issue 7 from March this year. Issue 8 from July adopts the same approach of looking at 14 or 15 signals of change and focussing on three of them to describe in detail using Futures Wheels:

• Military-grade society

• Digital tech giants become state actors

• Green hype bust.

Military grade society  means advanced security protecting Critical National Infrastructure from both attacks by malevolent actors and challenges caused by extreme weather events and other phenomena such as earthquakes. This will enhance resilience and preparedness, fostering stability in an unpredictable world. But it is likely to increase development costs.

Such an approach could go hand-in-hand with negative social effects such as increased autocratic tendencies and regimented society, with high surveillance and segregation. However it could also enhance growth with military oriented innovation and people generally learning survival skills.

Digital tech giants are increasingly becoming powerful enough to take on roles traditionally associated with states. Links with social media blur the lines between tech companies and government. The power to shape public opinion, questions about accountability, regulation and democracy become acute, challenging societies to rethink power structures in the digital age.

For the EU to sustain its values, in the face of global operators, becomes an increasing challenge. Digital companies will put great pressure on regulation; digital surveillance for commercial gain could cut loose, leading to greater caution from society, but also greater segregation. The lack of tech neutrality could lead to better services for the wealthy but not for all.   

Another area of tension between states and tech companies will come from the latter’s pressure on the environment – water and power systems in particular. States’ capabilities to push back may well be limited – is it possible for the EU to isolate itself from the global community?

Green hype bust. The renewable energy boom is facing problems as political parties and parts of society push back against transition costs. Demand for electrical vehicles is not as strong as it once was, and investment in ambitious projects is more difficult. Net-zero goals are being viewed sceptically threatening investors’ confidence. This could be part of a cycle with recovery based on economic and environmental fundamentals, but that cannot be assumed.

Loss of investment in renewables would lead to slower innovation and decarbonisation, acceleration of climate change and even more extreme weather events and climate migration. Nuclear power and nuclear fusion innovations could be a counter-acting force. Oddly, the report suggests an increases in eco-terrorism.

The suggested policy response is to support green industries with state investment to reduce market risk. How this might be possible in an era of slow growth is unclear.

As in Issue 7, a number of other developments are discussed.

• Polarisation of views around biodiversity: balancing the costs of protecting ecosystems with opportunities for growth is becoming increasingly contentious.

  
  

• Right to a human in digital loneliness epidemic:  as technology replaces human interactions, there is an increase in loneliness, so mental health suffers and a “right to disconnect” becomes ever more critical.

  
  

• Sudden collapse of carbon sinks: critical ecosystems like rivers and forests are losing their capacity to store carbon, even becoming net emitters, and in danger of reaching a tipping point with uncontrollable feedback loops.

  
  

• Personal science and self-experimentation: “the medical self” (personal medical data) and the prospect of DIY pharmaceutical development opens up the possibility of self-experimentation, guided by AI rather than professionals.

  
  

• Neuroaesthetic interventions: Neuroaesthetics research explores brain, body and behavioural responses to engagement with the arts and other aesthetic sensory experiences can help support health, mental and physical well-being and learning suggesting policy interventions in the arts.

  
  

• Moral offloading to AI: studies show that people may allow AI to change their minds on moral decisions, with potential consequences at a societal level.

  
  

• Grief Tech:  AI-generated messages from the deceased, including QR codes on graves may reduce feelings of grief but may have unforeseen implications for mental health.

  
  

• Authentic belief politics: the public’s expectations of politicians’ “authenticity” is leading to increasing “belief speaking”, disconnected from actual evidence.

  
  

• Weakening animal protection: Namibia and Zimbabwe decided on culling elephants to address the acute food emergency due to drought. Overall, the Animal Protection Index of 2020 shows that since 2014 animal protection has either remained the same or weakened in many countries.

  
  

• Chronowashing: the use of foresight and futures thinking processes to distract from current day problems could accelerate with the UN Pact of the Future.

  
  

• Cellular intelligence:  the multi-layer architecture of the body’s ability to restore itself could be regarded as a form of collective intelligence, that could be harnessed.

  
  

• Direct-to-device satellite services:  Direct-to-Device (D2D) communication in satellite networks enables smartphones and Internet of Things (IoT) devices connectivity without relying on terrestrial infrastructure using cellular technology (4G, 5G).

As with Issue 7, the ESPAS approach has been to bring out some more unlikely but potentially radical changes that may or may not be worth building plans around. Their relevance will depend on how closely they address areas of particular interest to your organisation.

Written by Huw Williams, SAMI Principal

The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily of SAMI Consulting.

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