Food Supply Chain Futures

Our recent blogpost on the second- and third-order implications of the Strait of Hormuz closure brought out several issues with the UK’s food distribution system. The impact in fertilisers and farming may lead to lower yields, higher prices, poorer diets, malnutrition, excess deaths, and instability in food-importing states (of which the UK is one, relying on imports for around 50% of its food).  Food shortages could lead to hoarding, theft, black markets, fraud, protests, force majeure and insurance exclusions increase; and, further, to riots, emergency powers, repression, instability, or government collapse.

The Cold Chain Federation, which represents the temperature-controlled logistics industry supplying vital perishable food and pharmaceuticals, are taking this seriously. Their White Paper, “THE CRITICAL LINK”, outlines a resilience strategy against growing threats to the supply chains. This builds on the 2025 National Preparedness Commission report ‘Just in Case: 7 steps to narrow the UK civil food resilience gap’.

UK food security and resilience is a national security threat. Challenges come not just from supply chain disruption in the Strait of Hormuz (and elsewhere) but also from cyber-attack, pandemics and climate change amongst other things.

The cold chain is the network of specialist buildings, vehicles, shipping containers and other infrastructure which ensure perishable goods are kept in a safe and secure chilled or frozen temperature-controlled environment as they pass from production to the point of usage or consumption. It is worth £14 billion in gross value added, 184,000 jobs, and £3.7 billion in annual government tax revenues. Whilst food products requiring cold chain make up around half of products sold, they are typically more expensive and valuable. 66% of the cost of a typical shopping basket and 8 out of 10 of the most expensive items are from products requiring temperature control.  As well as food, pharmaceutical products often contain sensitive biological substances that lose their efficacy, or become unsafe, if not stored within recommended temperature ranges.

Cold storage acts as the balancing system for perishable products holding them in stock for a long period and releasing them as the market and consumers require. This is supplemented by transportation & delivery systems that underpin access to food at an increasingly diverse set of delivery points.

In a resilient food system, all these methods of storage, transportation and delivery must operate to avoid disruption. Delays must also be kept to a minimum as with perishable products time is crucial, a delay at the UK or French border, can result in whole loads spoiling quickly.

Furthermore, strong and resilient supply chains are a vital function of a modern military defence force. In both national defence emergencies or overseas operations, cold chains help ensure key medical supplies reach those who need them and perishable food supplies can be delivered safely and securely to remote bases. Ensuring cold chain resilience should therefore be considered as a key part of the UK’s future national resilience and defence strategies.

Specific threats to the cold chain include:

• Lack of cold storage capacity: at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, with airlines grounded and restaurants closed, huge quantities of product required freezing to avoid wastage. The UK effectively ran out of available cold storage.

• Labour shortages: the pandemic also exposed labour shortages, which still persist.

• Energy demand: cold storage requires a constant supply of energy - around 1.7TWh; under National Grid emergency planning procedures cold stores are not prioritised for supplies. Had there been blackouts after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there was a significant risk of product spoilage and loss of supply. The Middle East conflict will have a similar effect.

• Cybercrime: companies in complex supply chains, such as food and pharmaceuticals, are a primary target for cyber criminals with major knock-on impacts on citizens; major retailers like Marks and Spencer, Coop and their supply chain partners suffered severe damage.

• Climate: much of the UK’s cold chain infrastructure was designed decades ago when 40°C was not considered likely. The result of the heatwave was equipment failure at several key sites

As with many other aspects of resilience, there is an argument for a shift away from ‘Just in Time’ to a ‘Just in Case’ model. The National Protective Security Authority (NPSA) recognises ‘food’ as a Critical National Infrastructure sector, with the Department for Farming and Rural Affairs (Defra) responsible for ensuring a resilient and secure UK food supply. The UK Food Security Report shows that there is no evidence that the essential role of the cold chain in ensuring food security and resilience is embedded in Defra strategies.

Cold chain absence from UK resilience policy is a national security threat. In extreme instances a weakened supply chain can result in health implications from a lack of appropriate nutrition, and even in civil unrest. Yet the National Risk Register has scant reference to food and no reference to the cold chain at all. The report contends that the cold chain is clearly not adequately represented in government risk planning.

The primary recommendation of the report is that cold chain infrastructure, including major cold stores and transport hubs, should be designated as critical infrastructure and the National Risk Register updated to recognise this.

It also recommends development of early warning systems and an Incident Response Plan (IRP) and a Disaster Recovery Plan (DRP), as well as ensuring minimum stocks of essential products are held within the UK as a civil contingency.

The Cold Chain Federation report is a solid analysis of the resilience of the food system and ways to improve it. Other industries would do well to conduct a similar review and to build foresight thinking and resilience planning into their everyday activities.

Written by Huw Williams, SAMI Principal

The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily of SAMI Consulting.

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