As the first step in their annual Report on the Future, the Finnish Prime Minister’s Office has published its view of the “Strategic Operating Environment” (in Finnish). This set of Futures trends will be used as the basis for a set of scenarios and provides a shared view of the forces of change affecting Finland's future.
Based on an international and national data analysis, an expert survey and cross-administrative processing of the results, 26 geopolitical, economic, social, technological, environmental and legislative change factors affecting Finland's future have been identified. The uncertainties affecting Finland's future have been identified and analysed using an uncertainty-impact analysis of change factors. The Report on the Future will include scenarios for 2045, an analysis of the scenarios' impacts on Finland and proposals for preparing for them.
Under geo-political changes, the report identifies familiar issues concerning a multi-polar world, challenges in the EU and US, and the positions of China and Russia. An interesting section, obviously very relevant to Finland, is the growing strategic importance of the Arctic region. The climate is warming in the Arctic almost four times faster than in other regions and the Arctic Ocean is forecast to be mostly ice-free during the summer season in the 2050s.
The melting of the ice cap has opened up opportunities for new sea routes and the opening of new oil and gas fields. The use of new sea routes in the increasingly difficult context of security policy involves many open questions, starting with who would use the routes and under what conditions, while access to rare earth elements is of interest in the implementation of the green transition.
Military activity in the Arctic is growing. Finland's and Sweden's NATO memberships will contribute to changing the security policy and military-strategic set-up of the Arctic region. Complementing NATO's maritime dimension with a strong element of ground power and air power.
New Arctic sea routes with commercially viable maritime transport will be regular and carried out by large ships but despite the technologies, fogs and storms make shipping difficult to predict. China is also increasing its military and intelligence activities in the region. New sea routes also provide opportunities to match China's growing need for energy and raw materials.
Under economic changes the report covers increasing protectionism, increasing inequality an ageing population and the implications of climate change and energy transition. It suggests that there are pressures towards the development of a circular economy with Finland well-placed to take advantage.
Technological development is revolutionising work and ways of working – the importance of the quality of working life is emphasised. Finland faces a labour shortage as competition for skilled labour intensifies.
How technological development and the wider adoption of AI will change work and working life will largely depend on the regulation of AI. Generative AI is expected to boost the productivity of those who use it in their work tasks, and a large number of professions have adaptation needs as a result. The more educated, higher-income and socio-economic group employed and, initially, especially ICT, are exposed to change.
The increasing employment of older people is reducing the exit from the labour force. The appreciation of older people in the labour market depends on the skills required and the up-to-date nature of employees' skills. The shortage of skilled labour increases international recruitment. Increasing teleworking makes it possible to work across borders.
Industrial relations are changing. The institutions of the labour market, including the bargaining system, must for their part react to changes in working life and ways of working. Economic globalisation, demographic changes in the workforce, shrinking of the industrial sector, reduction of the public sector workforce and the spread of flexible forms of employment explain the decline in trade union membership.
The next section deals with social changes. This covers falling birth rates and the ageing population with its implications for migration, continued urbanisation and inequality. But there is also a progressive trend towards higher competence, better health and well-being. Social values usually change only slowly, but we are seeing technological developments and environment change accelerate a shift away from religiosity and traditional values towards secular-rational and self-expression values.
Values change between generations and major upheavals and generational experiences can trigger change. However, it is often discussed that values and attitudes are becoming differentiated and polarised, as evidenced by, for example, the simultaneous development of secularisation and liberalisation, as well as the growth of nationalism and populism.
Among the major world religions, the number of Christians and Muslims is increasing. The number of Muslims is growing fastest due to stronger population growth in countries where Islam is the dominant religion. This trend is in contrast to the secularisation of developed countries.
Climate change and the loss of biodiversity require changes in lifestyles and society. Environmental awareness is reflected in consumption, mobility and housing, and the environmental perspective is emphasised in the value propositions of many consumer products. On the one hand, climate change and related solutions can cause anxiety; on the other hand, anxiety motivates action to prevent climate change. This is emphasised in young age groups.
A key challenge facing the scientific worldview is the spread of misinformation and disinformation. With the advent of social media targeting algorithms, the spread and bubble of distorted and erroneous information has become more common.
The dissemination of disinformation can be planned and purposeful, with the aim of misleading and influencing public opinion or political views. This can lead to an erosion of public trust in science and experts, which in turn undermines society's ability to make informed decisions and face global challenges such as climate change or pandemics. Education and media literacy play a crucial role in maintaining scientific thinking and research-based knowledge.
The fundamental values of Europe as defined in the Treaty of Lisbon are respect for human dignity and human rights, freedom, democracy, equality and the rule of law. In recent years, however, there have been divisions between Eastern and Western Europe on democracy and the rule of law.
Technological change obviously covers AI and other disruptive technologies. But there is also an extensive discussion on space activities. Positioning, telecommunications and remote sensing play an increasingly important role in the functioning of society.
A large number of new space companies and new space states will emerge in the field of operators. New, globally scalable business models are created by the development of small satellites and private launch services – which enable cheaper access to space. New private service providers will complement publicly funded and operated satellite systems.
The growing number of space actors and competition between conglomerates pose challenges to the sustainable use of space. Changes in the geopolitical situation and the intersecting interests of groups of actors make it difficult to find common solutions.
Congestion in orbits used by satellites, uncontrolled growth in space debris and poorly coordinated use of radio frequencies potentially reduce the quality and availability of space services; at worst, the construction of space services will be virtually blocked for decades.
Environmental changes identified are the classic problems of climate change, biodiversity loss and general environmental degradation, notably of soil quality and air and noise pollution.
Finally, as if that wasn’t depressing enough, in a rather dystopian section, the Report addresses legislative changes. There it identifies that the global rule of law is weakening. 76% of the world's population lives in countries where the rule of law has been steadily deteriorating in recent years. Factors that weaken society's comprehensive security and increase vulnerability include weakening citizens' trust, growing inequality and poor inclusion.
Also, the state of democracy has deteriorated globally and is declining. International research institutes have reported on the fragility of democracy and the rise of authoritarianism over the past decade. In 1973, 19% of the world's population lived in authoritarian states; by 2023 it was 35%. In 2002, authoritarian developments were identified in 13 countries, in 2022 there were 42 such countries.
According to the World Democracy Report, between 2020 and 2024 in almost one in 5 elections the losing candidate or party rejected the outcome.
One of the risks to the development of democracy and the rule of law is the curtailment of freedom of expression and expression. In many countries, freedom of assembly has been curtailed.
Election interference and election-related interference have been a growing problem internationally, with the aim of influencing the functioning of elections or undermining the legitimacy of elections. Hate speech and even physical threats against human rights defenders are increasing.
Weak democratisation typically leads to a gradual increase in corruption. And conversely corruption affects support for the democratic system.
Overview
The “Strategic Operating Environment” report covers much familiar ground in global trend analysis, and has many similarities to reports like GO-Science’s Trend Deck. The PESTLE approach is also not uncommon, but it was interesting to note that there was a high degree of inter-relationships between the factors.
What matters of course is the sense-making that follows – what are the implications for us, and what should we do about them?
Written by Huw Williams, SAMI Principal
The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily of SAMI Consulting.
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