A new report published by the Hoover Institute sheds a bright light on the principles that guide the Chinese Communist Party – effectively the Chinese Government – in the strategic and policy direction it is setting for the first half of the century. The author, Cai Xia was for many years a professor at the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Party School, and taught high-ranking officials. She was expelled from the CCP in 2020 for criticising Xi Jinping’s rule. She now lives in the USA. The article is 25 pages long, and well worth the read for China watchers. She argues that China is totalitarian (rather than merely autocratic) and its foreign engagements are an extension of a domestic policy which aims to secure the hegemony of the CCP. She identifies two possible scenarios for China-US relations:
Competition and co-operation;
Standoff and confrontation. She sees the latter as most likely, but does not rule out an implosion within the CCP due to economic stress, high levels of debt, and unhappiness within the CCP at Xi’s autocratic style and frequent purges of middle and senior officials. However the prospect of China and the US as – at best – competitors, and – at worst, in confrontation, leads to other thoughts. Is the 21st century to be “the Chinese century”, as the 20th was American?
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